CONTRARY to fears that there will be more rains this year compared to 2012, meteorologists have predicted that only the Sokoto, Bida, Osogbo and Ilorin axis may be that affected, while the rest of the country may experience lower rainfall.
The experts dismissed the recent link of the 'unusual' weather conditions to climate change. They, however, said the occasional change from hot to wet conditions in recent times in most parts of the country is due to climate variability.
Climate variability refers to variations in climate statistics on all temporal and spatial scales beyond those of individual weather events, while climate change refers to any change in climate over time.
Scientists, in a study published at the weekend in the Science journal, said global temperatures are now warmer than at any time in at least 4,000 years, and that the coming decades are likely to surpass levels not seen on the planet since the last ice age. They said the modern spike would probably threaten the survival of many species, in addition to putting severe stress on human civilisation.
But Nigerian meteorologists disagreed. They said the Science research was based on the weather in Europe, which erroneously suggests that everywhere is the same.
A meteorologist and General Manager, Public Weather Service of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Abuja, Mr. Samson Wilson, told The Guardian yesterday that "for sometime now, the rains have been chaotic, so we tried to give some guidance. Certain things are happening which are very unpredictable. Under normal circumstances, they ought not to be.
"These changes are difficult to predict. They are not due to climate change. There is variability on its own. If the weather change continues for several years, you can say it is climate change, but if it is just for one or two years, it is variability. So what we are experiencing now is variability."
On interpretation of NIMET's rainfall prediction for 2013, Wilson said: "Some are saying that there will be more rains this year than last year. That is not true. It has been erroneously interpreted that the rains of this year will not be much different from that of last year. But the rainfall pattern prediction for 2013 shows that there may be higher rainfall only in areas covering Sokoto, Bida, Osogbo and Ilorin, as well as other towns along that axis. They may have more rains than last year.
"The rest of the country will have lower rains than that of last year. We are, however, not sure that the predictions will come out 100 per cent. So, to generalise the prediction that the whole country will have more rains this year than that of last year is alarming."
The Guardian