The assault launched late March 31 by jihadi fighters on the northern Mali town of Timbuktu reflects the changing security scenario in West Africa. On the one hand, the Franco-African military intervention against groups allied with al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has inflicted considerable losses on Islamist militias — including within their leadership — and forced extremists who previously occupied the northern half of Mali to retreat to the mountainous border with Algeria to escape further fatalities from ground and air assaults. That progress allowed French President François Hollande on March 28 to outline his planned withdrawal schedule for France's forces. But Sunday's infiltration and attack on Timbuktu by a small unit of radicals not only demonstrates that the otherwise battered extremists are determined to continue waging jihad despite the setbacks they've suffered. It also suggests Islamist militias are already reverting to traditional methods of using the vast, ungovernable Sahel region to avoid enemy forces as they orchestrate regular strikes against military, government and civilian targets in Mali, Mauritania, Algeria and Niger. (MORE: French Officials Warn 'Success' in Mali Won't End Islamist Threat) "The military intervention has decimated Islamist forces and killed key leaders, but no one ever believed it would eradicate jihadi groups in the Sahel," says a senior French counterterrorism official who cannot be quoted by name. "Surviving commanders and fighters are now regrouping and gradually resuming operation, and will seek to regain some of the influence they had before they made the mistake of taking over the entire northern half of Mali. They're reverting back from being a terrifying occupation force to being a more elusive force of terrorism." As that happens, the official says, Islamist groups are expected to increase kidnapping, attacks on military outposts and, throughout the Sahel, suicide strikes on targets that they staged before teaming up with Tuareg militants to seize control of northern Mali in April 2012. Though that activity — which never entirely ceased during their domination of northern Mali — will remain a threat, it's a far cry from the(http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=world.time.com&blog=19871253&post=79024&subd=timeglobalspin&ref=&feed=1)
Via: TIME GlobalSpin