BY DAN ONWUKWE
In many democracies, the mid-term of any presidency is historically speaking, a sweet spot of sorts. It's like a half-way in a 400 metre race. It's a golden hour between re-election for the incumbent President and a lame-duck status.
It's so because it affords the President a rare chance to think more about history and less about what the opinion polls could be saying. It leaves the President with two clear choices: either to ignore his place in history or how high to reach it and what to accomplish while he still can.
But there's a risk in between. That's what political historians call "presidential overreach". It's a situation in which the incumbent President stops at nothing to silent the opposition or exaggerate his own achievements. Currently, President Goodluck Jonathan is doing exactly that.
But this much is plain: No one likes to leave a powerful and important job. In terms of pleasure and pressure, few jobs are as demanding as what Jonathan has been up against since he became, first the "accidental President" by virtue of Umaru Yar'Adua's death, and now, a freely elected President. That was in 2011.
However,sometimes,it makes sense to extend a morsel of empathy to the President Jonathan. There's no doubt that he has been the target of uncommon vitriol, and he has not managed to keep the public faith. The truth however is that Jonathan walked into arguably the worst situation of any Nigerian leader in as many years.
The Aso Rock he inherited from late Yar'Adua was like inheriting a house from a terminally- ill and distracted uncle: it was a nice house, no doubt, but the roofs were falling in and in danger of collapsing. The question was: can the new occupant fix the mansion or will he supervise its destruction?
And few times in our history have we reached this sort of horrible crossroads that we have right now as a nation. Insecurity has reached a frightening level, although the pain of how Nigeria has come to this crossroads precedes Jonathan Presidency. Often, the President's body language seems to assert the desire that the mind can no longer take the heat. Many feel worried at the turn of events. I am one of them.
On few occasions in this column, I complained that the President appears unable to clearly define his goals, the vision and purpose of his presidency because leadership must connect and inspire the followership and meet some of their aspirations.
As things stand today, the signs are there that the President will seek re-election in 2015,despite depressed enthusiasm in some sections of the country. He knows he must justify that desire for a fresh mandate by showing what he has done in two years.
It's therefore no surprise the amount of time and space the presidency deployed to showcase the President's achievements in two years, and urging anyone to use the "marking scheme" to score his administration.In fact, every President is entitled to lay claims to some accomplishments.
There's nothing wrong with that. In the present case, all points to one direction:2015.At this stage in 2001,Chief Olusegun Obasanjo as President choked up the political space ahead of 2003 elections. The whole country was in a tailspin.
I remember, the United States- based Washington Post cautioned in its edition of March 21,2001: "this is what happens when you start running for re-election two years early, you can't make tough choices, you try to give everyone something. It stinks politically".
While many insist that the only two things President Jonathan got right in two years was 30 percent of appointments to women and the recent belated state of emergency in three North-East States of Adamawa,Borno and Yobe.That may be unkind to the President.
The truth however is that while the President may not have been given his dues, some of his claims are somewhat exaggerated. At best, they are work- in- progress that requires more years to solidify his transformation agenda.
The undeniable fact is that while Jonathan may be rated slightly above some of his predecessors at this point in their respective presidencies, since the moment he arrived on the national scene as substantive president, the very idea of leadership which every country needs, has been under assault. If the President carries on this way, he will have a firestorm in his re-election plate.
Many people are put off by the role Chief Tony Anenih, Chairman of PDP Board of Trustees is playing to drum support for the President's re-election bid in 2015. Chief Anenih, who in his fearsome best a few years ago was fondly called "The Leader", Mr. Fix- it, had at recent meeting of selected leaders of the party, reeled out the President's "achievements". He created a firestorm to scare away other presidential contenders by foreclosing any primaries in the nomination of the party's presidential candidate. Atiku disagrees with that suggestion. So is a section of the Northern Governors.
But Anenih insists that a consensus candidate should be the path for PDP to follow, meaning, President Jonathan should be nominated by acclamation and ask to "take a bow".
Anenih knows it will be tough for the President to just take a bow. Truly, the President has built up an enemy centre across the country, especially in the North. And going through a primary will split PDP down the middle. It will be financially costly as well. The wounds the primary process might create could take some time to heal.
That's what Anenih fears most.This is the sort of game Anenih knows how to play, and play aggressively. For me, I don't see what Chief Anenih has to offer in terms of good ideas and strategy. He's a man in his twilight years. He has been repeating the same old "scare them" strategies that have now become hackneyed. Let's go back in time to see the re-hash of the same intimidation tactics by Anenih.
In 2001, two years to 2003 General Elections, Chief Anenih issued a Caveat Emptor of "No Vacancy in Aso Rock",warning all presidential aspirants, including the then Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, to beware:" it's Obasanjo or no one else.
Obasanjo was seeking re-election. "Obasanjo", Anenih said "is the reason why Nigeria still remains one entity today". He added very illogically:" If Obasanjo was not the President of today, Nigerians would have taken to the streets fighting themselves".
That is Anenih at his imperious, all-knowing best. It later became an interesting irony that things had to fall apart between Anenih and Obasanjo soon after the later was re-elected. Who says our politics is not fun and strange in equal measure?
Now, Anenih is using almost the same flattering words about President Jonathan. It's this kind of cocky, hollow assurances that makes our politics most uninspiring. Unknown to Anenih and even the President and his handlers, in politics, the lesson of every election is unique and priced beyond its application to the one ahead.
President Jonathan can win re-election(no matter how tough it would be)without any input from the likes of Anenih. Indeed, the President will be better off without him. It's not unkind to say that Anenih is more of a political liability now than an asset to whomsoever engages his services.
Politics is sometimes like boxing. You know why? It takes a boxer to take another boxer to "retirement".Gov Adams Oshiomhole delivered that TKO on Anenih during the Edo governorship election last year. Though Anenih wasn't on the ballot, his image was. Edo is his State.
To continue to move with the Anenih crowd is where the President loses me. It's therefore high time President Jonathan began to think how he wants to be remembered; either as a wise leader, a problem- solver that he was elected to be, or simply as wake just pass.
Via: Sun News Online