As the November 16 governorship election in Anambra State approaches, CHARLES OKEKE writes on the strengths and weaknesses of the political parties and their candidates and how the election would be fought and won.
In line with the Independent Electoral Commission, INEC, timetable and schedule of activities for the November 16 Anambra State governorship election, all the registered political parties that are expected to participate in the contest have concluded their primaries to pick their respective flag bearers before the September 2 deadline.
The parties which have elected their gubernatorial candidates preparatory for the November 16 election included, the newly registered All Progressives Congress, APC, which chose former governor and the senator representing Anambra Central, Dr. Chris Ngige as its candidate; the Labour Party, LP, is fielding business mogul, Ifeanyi Uba, while the African Democratic Congress, ADC, selected a veteran journalist, Chief Anayo Arinze as its candidate.
Other parties and their standard bearers are: the Accord Party, AP, with Chief Hygers Ifeanyi Igwebuike as its candidate, Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, ACPN which picked Chief Udeoka Udeogaranya, Dennis Ogugua is flying the banner of the Kowa Party, the National Conscience Party, NCP, is fielding Webster Emeka Okonkwo, Basil Iwuoba flies the flag of Peoples Party of Nigeria, PPN, Action Alliance has Jerry Chika Okeke as its candidate, while the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPN, is also fielding Prince Leonard Uchendu as its candidate in the election.
The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the All Progressive Grand Alliance, APGA, are yet to come to terms as both parties have produced four candidates among themselves from the various factions within the parties. Tony Nwoye and Senator Andy Uba are laying claim to the ticket, having been elected at separate primaries organised by the two factions fighting for the soul of the Anambra chapter of the PDP.
While the Chris Uba faction of the party led by Ejike Oguebego and recognised by INEC produced Senator Uba as its flag bearer, the faction recognised by the National Working Committee, NWC, of the PDP, led by Ken Emeakayi produced Nwoye as its candidate. The APGA is also facing the same problem as the PDP.
The faction of the state governor, Peter Obi and National Chairman, Victor Umeh, has picked Chief Willie Obiano as its only candidate, while the Maxi Okwu-led faction announced Dr. Chike Obidigbo as its own candidate.
Strength, weaknesses of the contending parties
THE PDP:
The PDP has fully been entrenched in Anambra State politics since its formation in 1998 as it has notable indigenes of the state, including Second Republic Vice President, Dr. Alex Ekwueme, amongst its founders.
Today, almost all the very rich and influential indigenes of Anambra State are members of PDP, a development that has made it possible for more people to seek for its membership. As it were, most of those who are now holding influential positions in other political parties, including the APC, LP and to some extent, APGA, were former chieftains of the PDP, who defected when the party's decade-old crisis became intractable.
Ngige, who now leads the state chapter of APC, was a key member of the PDP before he defected. Barrister Egwuoyibo Okoye, the immediate past state chairman of APGA, was also a top PDP member before he decamped. But despite this, most commentators and chieftains of the party have described Anambra as a PDP state.
The dominance of PDP in Anambra politics dated back to 1999 when it won the governorship election of that year through Dr. Chinwoke Mbadinuju.
The party also controlled politics at the local level as most of its members were elected as chairmen of the 21 local government councils of the state. The party was the party to beat in Anambra politics until the plan to deny Mbadinuju ticket for his second tenure was successfully executed and the lot fell on Ngige to contest as the PDP candidate in the governorship election of 2003.
Eventually, Ngige won that election and was subsequently sworn in as governor. He functioned in that capacity for about three years until the Election Petition Tribunal upturned his victory which was upheld by the Court of Appeal.
Before then, the botched abduction of Ngige by godfathers and the eventual loss of the governorship seat were the beginning of the crisis that had bedevilled the party in Anambra till date. And, with the crisis persisting, the party thereafter split into factions, one led by the Uba brothers, and the other led by the duo of Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu and Engr. Arthur Eze.
Several attempts have been made to bring the crisis to an end without success. However, as it were, fresh bids made by some concerned groups and key stakeholders to resolve the crisis are said to have yielded dividend. However, the persistent crisis in the PDP has not deterred prominent Anambra indigenes and a host of others from seeking to join it. Its strength lies in the fact that it has lots of very rich and influential Anambra sons and daughters in its fold, just as it has a wide spread in the state.
It also dispenses patronages and appointments to loyal members from the Federal Government. Although, the PDP is strong in Anambra, its major weakness is the prevailing in-fighting and bickering among the key antagonists and their competing leaders, a development that has led to spate of court cases that had held the party down over the years.
Already, the in-fighting which cost the party the governorship election in 2010 has reared its head again as it prepares for the next governorship.
With the PDP producing two candidates, neither of which is ready to step down for the other, doubt has been created as to whether the party will perform creditably in the election, unless the problem is resolved on time to enable the party put its house in order to carry out vigorous campaign to woo voters to its side. None of the very rich and influential key chieftains of the party is ready to concede and give way for the other to lead the state chapter of the PDP.
Nwoye and Uba: Who can win for PDP?
Nwoye hails from Nsugbe, a key community in Anambra East Local Government Area of the North Senatorial zone, which has been clamouring for power shift. He was a former national president of the National Association of Nigerian Students, NANS, and also a one-time chairman of the Anambra State chapter of the PDP.
Although alleged to be backed by Eze, his chances of performing well in the election is boosted by the fact that he hails from Anambra North which sees the election as an opportunity for one of its sons to become governor. A courageous and dogged fighter, his support base is wide and it includes the whethyouths.
Being a candidate with a very rich potential, it was therefore not surprising that his personality has been subjected to severe criticisms by commentators, since he defeated strong contenders like Ukachukwu in the party's primaries.
However, Nwoye would still need to overcome the challenges emanating from the fact that he is a young man being propped up by some alleged godfathers, who are bent on using him to spite the Uba brothers and grab power at all cost. Similarly, Uba has the potential of winning the election for the PDP, if eventually he succeeds as the party's flag bearer.
A serving senator and veteran in Anambra politics, Uba won the governorship election of 2010 and served briefly as governor before he was sacked by the Supreme Court. In 2010, he contested again for the top position on the LP's platform and lost to the incumbent governor.
Today, he is back again to the front line, battling Nwoye for the PDP ticket. His major asset is that he is rich and benevolent, as he has empowered a lot of individuals and groups and has a strong support in Anambra South where he hails from. However, should the PDP accept him as its candidate, his greatest setback would be how he is going to market himself to the people of Anambra North.
APGA
The party came in to prominence in Anambra State politics in 2003 when it won the gubernatorial election of that year with Obi as its candidate. And since then, APGA has grown from strength to strength, winning the governorship election of February 2010, which gave Obi another four-year term. It derived its strength from the personality of the late Igbo leader, Chief Emeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu. Branded as a South-East party, it had used that brand to campaign and woo supporters.
Since 2006, when Obi was sworn in as governor, the party has achieved such that by 2011 when the last general election was conducted, host of PDP and defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, top leaders defected to APGA. Its fortunes continued to rise until the death of Ojukwu in 2011. Initially, there were cracks in the party leading to the emergence of the Obi and Umeh factions, but the duo have since reconciled their differences and have now formed a common front to fight their adversaries and possibly win the coming governorship election.
And, as part of the strategy to win the election, APGA under the leadership of Obi fulfilled its pledge to zone the governorship to Anambra North, when it selected Obiano, an indigene of Aguleri and former director of Fidelity Bank Plc as its gubernatorial candidate. It is expected that the governor and his team would go all out to market Obiano successfully to the electorate.
However, few days after the APGA primaries where Obiano emerged victorious and few weeks after the reconciliation between Obi and Umeh was achieved, fresh crisis has erupted in APGA, spearheaded by those who felt that they were used and dumped. With this new crisis in APGA, a lot of people have said that rather than boost its chances, the new development in the party would negatively affect its chances during the election.
But the chairman of APGA Stakeholders' Forum and party leader, Chief Sylvester Nwobu-Alor, who told National Mirror that what Okwu did would not affect the chances of APGA to win the election, contending that whoever is presented by Obi would win the election out rightly.
He said: "The leader of the party is the governor of Anambra State, who will lead the campaign... and having achieved a lot, the electorate would vote for the governor's candidate and people are waiting to pay the governor for all he has done for them for the past seven years." However, with the Nwobu-Alor's optimism persisting alongside the raging crisis, the next question bothers on what is the worth of Obiano as a candidate?
Obiano: What electoral value?
Apart from his very rich credentials and unblemished personality, very little is known about Obiano in Anambra State politics before now. His entry into the race for the ticket of APGA took everybody by surprise. He came at a time when nobody was expecting him.
However, his fortunes drastically changed for good since he declared his intention at the APGA secretariat in Awka on August 14. He told party leaders that he was contesting to continue from where Obi stopped.
He said: "I will continue with the good work of Obi and that is why I am contesting. All that Obi is doing and has done, we would continue there, I will use the ANIDS blueprint to govern Anambra State and continue from where Obi stopped."
Being a new person in the politics of Anambra, Obiano will be basking so much in the euphoria of the solid achievement of the incumbent governor to win the support of voters. Already, the prospect for him is bright as the camp of Obi is doing all that are vital to market him successfully to the electorate.
However, whether he would win at the end of the day depends on two vital issues, namely, whether the other competing parties would field another credible candidate from Anambra North and the extent Okwu and his group would go in pushing the candidacy of Obidigbo.
The fact remains that if the other competing parties bring out another credible candidate from the zone, who has a mass appeal, then, Obiano would be in trouble as those marketing him would have a greater burden to discharge for APGA to retain power after the exit of Obi.
LP
The LP came in to prominence for the first time in Anambra politics in 2010, when it fielded Senator Andy Uba as its gubernatorial candidate. Although, it lost the election, those who are managing it have used the experience to rebuild the party to the level it has reached today in Anambra, to the extent that a key candidate in the selection, Ifeanyi Uba has since grabbed the party's ticket.
Although it is one of the highly ranked parties in Anambra by virtue of its name and inclination, LP membership and strength is limited by the fact that it is composed of mainly defectors from other parties, particularly the PDP, APGA, ADC, the defunct ACN and All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP. Over the years, the LP had been the targeted destination of most governorship aspirants, who could not win the ticket of their parties. And, as its membership is narrow, it does not have strong presence in all the 326 wards and 21 local government areas of Anambra State.
Although the current State Chairman of the party, Sam Osita Oraegbunam, who joined the party from the defunct ACN is working hard to reposition it, the fact is that take out Uba from the party, the entire thing would collapse, as there would not be any other rich and influential person for now to fund and mobilise support for its programmes. The party does not have mass followership in Anambra, a factor that may hinder its chances during the coming elections, particularly the governorship contest.
Can Ifeanyi Uba make any impact in the election?
The million dollar question being asked by stakeholders, considering the strength of other parties has always been: "Can Ifeanyi Uba win the election for the LP? When he was crowned the LP candidate, Uba gave the hint about the direction he would take if he wins the election. His words: "My mission is to change Anambra State positively.
The LP is here to bring change to Anambra State; let me make it clear that I have no godfather, what I have is God and with Him, we would prosper." Eulogising Uba, the National Chairman of the LP, Dan Nwayanwu described Uba as somebody who has thousands of Nigerians in his employment. Uba hails from Nnewi in Anambra South Senatorial zone. Before now, he was not involved in Anambra politics.
However, all that changed in the Christmas of 2011 when his Capital Oil and Gas Company started distributing free kerosene and rice to thousands of people. He has been marching on despite the fact that the North is clamouring for power shift to their zone.
He has a very rich potential, which if properly harnessed would position him among the top contenders during the governorship election. He has a strong support from the Nnewi people; however, he has the big task of marketing himself successfully to the people of Anambra Central and North, who also have their sons as candidates in the election.
APC
A newly formed party, it came into being when the defunct ACN, Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, All Nigerian Peoples Party, ANPP, and a faction of APGA merged. Before the APC primaries was concluded, cracks had begun to manifest in the party.
The first sign that all was not well within the party was when members of a faction of the defunct CPC, led by Igwebuike pulled out of the party and joined AP, he has since emerged as its gubernatorial candidate.
Again, another group that is likely to leave the party, following the fallout of the primaries is the Chief Godwin Ezeemo-led faction. It will be recalled that Ezeemo has alleged that the exercise that was won by Ngige was tainted by irregularities.
As it is now, everything about the APC revolves around Ngige. Its executive committees at the state, local government and ward levels have not been constituted, a development that may hinder the operation of the party during electioneering and mobilisation for voters' support. It is against these backdrops that one would ask whether the APC will be able to win the election this time and with Ngige as its candidate.
Ngige: What manner of candidate?
A veteran of Anambra politics, Ngige's fortune in politics, which dimmed after he was sacked as governor by the courts, has been re-energised since he won the senatorial seat for Anambra Central during the 2011 general elections.
Already, as it were, Ngige, who have gotten the ticket of APC, is being positioned to give his contenders serious challenge during the November 16 election.
His strength is boosted by the support he is receiving from the South-West and Northern elements in the APC, who are desirous of propelling him to victory.
The APC national leadership is out to give him full support, both financial and logistics as he prepares to confront his major opponents in the election.
He has a strong support base in the whole of Idemili area, where he hails from and a section of Orumba North and South, as well as Aguata and other communities where he cited some projects during his tenure as governor.
Although he is well equipped for the coming electoral battle, his major task in the coming days would bother on how to handle the challenges arising from the crave by Anambra North to produce the next governor of the state and the fallout of the Lagos State deportation saga, which his opponents are likely to exploit during the campaigns. Like other serious contenders, Ngige is expected to make a serious impact in the coming election.
However, whether he would succeed at the end of it would depend on the extent to which those who compelled him to come out again and contest are ready to market him successfully to all the segments, groups and communities of Anambra State.
Zoning: A burning issue
Zoning of the governorship seat to any part of the state has never featured on the agenda of Anambra politics since the creation of the state in 1991. Already, as a fulfilment of its pledge to zone the governorship seat to Anambra North, APGA has selected Obiano, thus making the party the only one that has fully embraced zoning in allocation of political offices.
The other political parties in the contest, including the PDP are treading very cautiously on the issue, bearing in mind that there are people who do not support the introduction of zoning in Anambra politics. The APC selected Ngige, from the Central zone as its candidate; the LP gave its ticket to Uba, from Anambra South.
Both the ADC and the AP and other parties have ignored zoning and picked their candidates from either the Central or South zones, bearing in mind that no zone can win the election without receiving votes and support from other zones.
With the nomination of the candidates for the election already concluded, and as the parties begin campaigns, there is no doubt that the issue of zoning would take a prominent position in campaign speeches and messages.
The first democratic election conducted in 1992 was won by the candidate of the defunct Social Democratic Party, Dr. Chukwuemeka Ezeife, from the South Senatorial zone. The return of democracy in 1999 threw up Mbadinuju, another Southern candidate under the PDP.
He was succeeded by Ngige, from the Central zone, before he was sacked by the courts. Obi, another governor from the Southern zone, took over after Ngige and has remained in the saddle for over seven years now.
As the election approaches, there have been clamours for the Northern zone, which had never produced any governor of Anambra, to produce the next governor. APGA, under Obi actually began the zoning debate when he said that he would hand over power to someone from the zone.
The politics of zoning of the governorship to the North has become a common theme in the discussions and speeches and statements emanating from elites and interest groups from the seven local government areas that constitute Anambra North Senatorial zone.
Among the groups which are championing the cause of zoning of power to the North are the Olu Na Adagbe Peoples Assembly and the Omabala Union led by a retired Chief Judge of Anambra State, Justice P.A.C Obidigwe, which recently declared: "Only Anambra North Senatorial zone has not produced the governor of the State in the long period of 22 years.
The hierarchy of the various political parties found Anambra North fit only for the role of the second fiddle, a standby generator, euphemistically named deputy governor."
The union maintained that it is the turn of Anambra North to produce the next governor of the state and also condemned any attempt by any indigene of the area to lobby for or accept a deputy governorship candidacy. Both the Olu Na Adagbe group and the Omabala Union have since thanked Governor Obi for aligning with them on the issue.
Will power of incumbency count?
There is a general assumption in Nigeria that incumbent governors usually influence the outcome of elections and had proceeded from there to install their successors.
Such a trend has taken place in numerous states of the federation, including Lagos State, where Senator Bola Tinubu, after his eight-year reign as governor installed his successor, Babatunde Fashola as governor.
Similar situation took place in Abia State, where Chief Orji Uzor Kalu, at the expiration of his eight-year tenure, anointed Theodore Orji, who eventually succeeded him as governor.
However, as the Anambra governorship election approaches, the question of whether the incumbency factor would influence the outcome of the exercise has become pertinent?
Suffice it to state that the only time incumbency factor played a major role in the governorship contest was in February 2010, when Obi, as a sitting governor contested in the 2010 election and won, after defeating the likes of Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, Uba, Ukachukwu and Ngige.
Today, history is about to repeat itself, as Obi is grooming his own successor and perfecting plans on how to market Obiano very successfully to the electorate and ensure he wins. As a two term governor with enormous resources at his disposal, it is apparent that the camp of Obi has been well positioned long ago to beat their opponents and consequently get Obiano declared as winner of the gubernatorial election.
However, whether Obi will succeed depends largely on the readiness of the PDP, to throw its weight behind its eventual candidate.
Beside the PDP factor, which if fully harnessed would hinder to some extent the incumbency factor; there is also the APC challenge, which is also a veritable instrument that could be used to mitigate the influence of the incumbency factor, when it is fully deployed by those who manage the party in Abuja and Lagos.
The totality of it all is that those who are banking on the incumbency factor have a big task on their hands as the forces they are going to confront are very tested and formidable ones. It is not going to be an easy ride for all the combatants in the race and those sponsoring them.
Less popular parties: Any chance?
There are many less popular parties already lined up to take part in the election. These are parties which usually rear their heads any time an election comes up in Anambra, and immediately after the elections are concluded, they would disappear. Today, they have resurfaced with their billboards dotting major streets in Awka, Onitsha and Nnewi.
Their membership is narrow, while they lack structures in the ward and local government areas. Usually, their tickets were offered to aspirants who could not secure the support of the preferred bigger parties, like the PDP, APC and APGA.
Although, they are fielding a retinue of candidates in the election, it is doubtful whether they are going to perform creditably during the contest proper in view of their limited resources and apparent lack of preparedness. Elections in Nigeria are very costly ventures and for one to win, he or she must have the resources for mobilisation of supporters and voters before, during and after the elections.
Alleged plans to rig
Like every serious electoral contest, candidates and their sponsors have since been working discreetly and perfecting plan on how to beat their opponents and win the election. Already, agents of the competing camps have started trading allegations of plans to rig the poll. There is also the allegation that some people are already engaging in the unlawful act of buying of voters' cards with which to rig the election.
Again, recently, the agents of a key aspirant were alleged to have been involved in the importation of foreign voters, who allegedly came to participate in the voters' continuous registration exercise, conducted by INEC in the entire 326 wards of the state.
These allegations are yet to abate, when a syndicate went online and circulated a story alleging that some forces in the electoral contest, with the active support of their foreign masters, were perfecting plans on how to win the election, conquer Anambra people and thereafter bring the state under their control.
And with the prospect of more allegations of plans to rig the election coming up as the poll approaches, there is no doubt that tension would be high in the days ahead even as the animosity among the competing candidates is bound to escalate to an all time high level before the election finally holds on November 16.
National Mirror