Fear has gripped the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as it becomes clear that the United States and other non-OPEC members would continue to export more crude oil to the global market.
OPEC stated in its a report released yesterday that world oil demand growth in 2013 had been revised up slightly by 34 tb/d from last month's report. It stated that the revision was based on actual and preliminary data for the first half of the year, generally coming from all OECD regions as well as some non-OECD countries, particularly in Africa.
The organisation, which puts the world oil demand growth for this year at 0.9 mb/d, said: "For 2014, the forecast for world oil demand growth remains unchanged at 1.04 mb/d." OPEC estimated non- OPEC oil supply in 2013 to increase by 1.2 mb/d, representing an upward revision from last report.
The organisation said: "In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d, also slightly higher than last month's report.
"The US, Canada, Brazil, South Sudan & Sudan, Kazakhstan and Colombia are expected to be the main contributors to next year's growth, while Norway, the UK, Syria, and Mexico are anticipated to see the largest declines." It stated that OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are seen averaging 5.9 mb/d in 2014, indicating growth of 0.1 mb/d over the current year.
The organisation maintained that in October, OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.89 mb/d, almost unchanged over the previous month, according to secondary sources.
The report which has it that the demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is estimated to average 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report, representing a decline of 0.6 mb/d from last year stated, "The forecast for next year was also unchanged at 29.6 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to the current year.
While Nigeria and other OPEC nations continue to watch the volatile oil market, the International Energy Agency, IEA stated that the United States would soon become self sufficient in oil.
The agency maintained that role of the OPEC Countries will recover in the middle of the next decade as other nations struggle to repeat North America's success with exploiting shale deposits, the agency predicted.
It stated the United States moves steadily towards meeting all of its energy needs from domestic resources by 2035," the Paris-based advisor to 28 energy-consuming nations yesterday.
The agency stated, "But this does not mean that the world is on the cusp of a new era of oil abundance. Light, tight oil shakes the next 10 years, but leaves the longer term unstirred.
It also added that, "Soaring shale output in the U.S. is helping the world's largest oil consumer achieve its highest level of energy independence in two decades, cushioning it against disruptions in Africa and the Middle East.
The boom threatens revenues for OPEC's 12 members, whose production is at its lowest in two years amid political unrest in Libya and theft in Nigeria." However, the Secretary General of OPEC, Dr. Abdalla El-Badri said the organisation would continue to review activities in the market as well as cooperate with other stakeholders to realise market stability.
The Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Corporation, Engr. Andrew Yakubu stated that the fears were real and other market outlets would be exploited for the nation's premium crude oil grades.
OPEC is a big association so i'm very sure they will overcome this soonest.
They just have to