Are you wondering where campaign reporters will be camped out for the next fifteen months? Or what states' airwaves will be buffeted by wave after wave of attack ads? Or whose phones shall ring forever with the din of robo-calls? I want to believe it's too early to be definitive, but Larry Sabato has taken an early squint into his old crystal ball and has foreseen that seven states in particular shall loom large as battlegrounds (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2011090801/):
Republicans are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. Seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the 270 Electoral College majority: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13). Prior to Obama's 2008 victories in each state, several of these toss-ups had generally or firmly leaned Republican for most elections since 1980. Virginia, which hadn't voted Democratic since 1964, was the biggest surprise, and its Obama majority was larger than that of Ohio, which has frequently been friendly to Democrats in modern times. Massive Hispanic participation turned Colorado and Nevada to Obama, and it helped him in Florida. New Hampshire was the only state lost by Al Gore that switched to John Kerry; its special New England character makes it especially volatile.
More... (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/08/late-returns-seven-swing-_n_954717.html)
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