(http://edge.punchng.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Osun-State-Governor-Rauf-Aregbesola.jpg)Religion is becoming a tool in the fight for the political soul of the South-West geo-political zone. LEKE BAIYEWU examines the undercurrents in the accusations and counter-accusations between the PDP and ACN ahead of the 2015 general elections
The South-West has remained one of the most controversial political landscapes in Nigeria, which analysts believe is due to its large number of elite. The crises can be traced back to the First Republic, when it was known as Western Region and when the Chief Obafemi Awolowo-led Action Group held sway.
The party strove and dominated the region but it also had a fall.
For instance, AG secured approximately 53.6 per cent in the election into the Western Regional House of Assembly in 1960, while the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons won 36.2 per cent.
However, by 1962, there were factions in the AG, making the party lose its grip on the region. The consequent crisis in the Western House of Assembly which led to the popular uprising, weetie, forced the Federal Government to declare a state of emergency. The takeover of the region's administration, restrictions placed on the leaders and the unending schism made the party lose its popularity.
The AG regained its glory, and for 13 years (1966-1979) dominated governance from the Executive Councils downwards; in the 1979 elections, the electorate in the former Western Region voted overwhelmingly for the Unity Party of Nigeria, an offshoot of the AG, at all levels.
In the Fifth Republic which began in 1999, and in which the Peoples Democratic Party won the majority of political posts available, including the presidency, it still could not penetrate the South-West. The AG, which metamorphosed into Alliance for Democracy during this period, held sway.
The PDP later recorded what could be termed a pyrrhic victory in 2003, when the then president Olusegun Obasanjo from the South West, allegedly called on the then AD governors, to rally round him during the elections. PDP won in all the South West states, with exception of Lagos. Election tribunals later overturned the victory recorded in some states won by the PDP.
While the PDP was busy parading itself as the biggest party in Africa, internal crises, over-confidence, poor governance, among other issues, made it lose much of its strength, particularly in the South-West.
In the process, the AD changed to Action Congress, and later Action Congress of Nigeria. During this period too, the opposition party, which has the Yoruba at the helm of its affairs, gathered momentum to unseat the ruling party, PDP.
And by the end of the 2007 and 2011 general elections, the PDP had lost 13 states to the opposition parties. They are the Congress for Progressive Change (Nassarawa), the Labour Party (Ondo), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (Yobe, Zamfara and Borno), the All Progressives Grand Alliance (Anambra) and the Action Congress of Nigeria that is in charge of Edo State and the entire South-West (Lagos, Ekiti, Osun, Oyo and Ogun), except Ondo.
While the PDP is concerned with reclaiming the state it had governed in its glorious days, the ACN believes it has come to stay and will maintain its momentum in dominating the zone and beyond.
The contest over which political party should control the zone however seems to have assumed a frightening dimension with the recent allegations of Islamisation and secession heaped on Governor of Osun State, Mr.Rauf Aregbesola.
The ACN had on April 11 claimed to have uncovered a plot by the Peoples Democratic Party to destabilise the South-West geo-political zone as a strategy to give a push to President Goodluck Jonathan in winning the 2015 presidential poll.
In a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Dr. Lai Mohammed, the party also alleged that the PDP was planning to terminate the life of Aregbesola, as part of its destabilisation plot to "soften the ground for the PDP ahead of the 2015 general elections."
The PDP National Publicity Secretary, Chief Olisah Metuh, however reacted by denying the allegation, saying the ACN believed in sectional issues. "The ACN thrives on religion, sectionalism and tribal issues but we are concerned with issues of serious national importance," he said.
Similarly, the PDP National Vice-Chairman (South-West), Mr. Segun Oni, denied the allegation by the ACN. He called on the security agencies to investigate the alleged plans by the Osun State government under Aregbesola's leadership to secede from Nigeria.
The ACN however insisted that Aregbesola was a target in the plot by the PDP. It also pointed out that the first step in the plot was to fabricate an 'intelligence report' that claimed that Aregbesola had secession plans for Osun State among other issues.
Perhaps, Osun was picked as a launch pad based on the fact that it was the only state where the electorate voted overwhelmingly for the ACN's presidential candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, in the last presidential election.
The party claimed the architects of this plot believe that, unless the PDP destabilises the South-West and gets rid of the man they see as an implacable foe, the President's putative plan to run for re-election in 2015 will be in jeopardy.
It said the PDP members were afraid, for reasons best known to them, that Jonathan would not win votes from the North-West and the North-East zones in his quest for re-election.
Painting a picture of desperation on the part of the ruling party, the ACN explained that the cooked intelligence report concluded that all legal and constitutional means must be used to stop Aregbesola.
Reading between the lines, the measures being advocated in the report, ACN insisted, could be impeachment, creation of chaos and anarchy to pave the way for the imposition of a state of emergency in the state, or the final solution, which is physical elimination.
Oni, who also reacted through a statement by his media aide, Mr. Lere Olayinka, however said the PDP would not be cowed or succumb to blackmail in its mission to rescue the zone from 'predators.'
Oni would want Aregbesola to tell Nigerians why he was using members of TA'AWUNIL, an Islamic fundamentalist group, as security guards instead of the police and SSS. He also wondered why the governor changed the name of Osun State to 'State of Osun.'
Although, the National President of TA'AWUNIL, Alhaji Daood Molaasan, had come out to say that some fifth columnists were planning to mislead the presidency to create tension in the country, this was not enough to douse the tension the allegations had created.
Following the heat from the hot debate, Aregbesola, in a state-wide broadcast on April 14, disclosed that he had notified Jonathan of attempts to implicate him over religious extremism and secession. He said all the allegations were calculated to scandalise his government. He also posited that he remained unapologetic in promoting the 'state of Osun' within the Nigerian federation.
Explaining the legality and the possibility of seceding a state by a governor, a foremost constitutional lawyer, Prof. Itse Sagay, told SUNDAY PUNCH in an interview that there was no constitutional provision for such.
The Senior Advocate of Nigeria said, "It is not possible for a state to secede. There is no constitutional basis for any governor to do that. Those who raised the issue are just being mischievous. For the federal government to take the issue seriously shows that someone is silly. The whole idea is laughable; it cannot happen."
Another legal practitioner, Mr. Ade Ajayi, told SUNDAY PUNCH, "It is not possible. A governor cannot do that. The issue with 'Osun state' and 'The State of Osun' is an unnecessary issue."
A lecturer in the Department of Political Science, University of Abuja, Prof. Saleh Dauda, said the South-West did not have a record of religious politics and it would not work in the zone because the people were largely educated.
He said, "I believe the governor does not have the ambition to secede or Islamise the state, he is only trying to restructure it. What I want him to know is that naming a state and giving it a logo do not speak good governance."
Dauda further said religious politics was minimal in the zone, compared to the North. He added that Nigerian politicians, in their bid to contest for power, could use any device to win.
It however remains to be seen how this fight for the soul of the South-West geo-political zone will end.
As the controversy lingers on, if the 'weeti-e' era does not replay itself, the 2015 elections will determine which party has the political might to rule the zone.
The Punch
I am not at all surprised.Nigerians will always do what is necessary to achieve their objectives.
for a discerning eyes it clear that some people have made up their mind to win southwest not by politic or superior ideas,they should remember Nigerians are a little bit on the edge,they should remember the fuel subsidy issue