By Emmanuel Aziken, Political Editor
The forthcoming gubernatorial election in Edo State is a battle that will not only direct the course and content of governance in the State, but also redefine the political relevance of a few powerful men in the state.
JUly 14, 2012 is a date set in history for the people of Edo State. For the state with the moniker, Heartbeat of the Nation, it is expected that the forthcoming gubernatorial election due on that historic day could turn out to be momentous for the long term future of the state.
The incumbent, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, flying the banner of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN is pitched in battle against six other candidates with the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP's Maj. Gen. Charles Airhiavbere (rtd) proving to be the most formidable of the lot.
The other candidates include Chief Solomon Edebiri, All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, Andrew Igwemoh, Labour Party; Frank Ukonga, Social Mega Democratic Party and Roland Izevbuwa, Congress for Progressive Change, CPC.
But beyond the vote on that day is the unseen battle for the future of the state which has inevitably crystallised into a battle between the old order and the new order as incontestably being fashioned by Comrade Oshiomhole.
It is as such not surprising that Oshiomhole has throughout his campaign repeatedly portrayed the battle of July 14 as that between him and the old order. He has almost succeeded in portraying the old order to be that championed by the godfather, a tag he has successfully put on the erstwhile Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the PDP, Chief Anthony Anenih otherwise known to his supporters as the leader.
The July 14 gubernatorial election is taking place almost four years after Oshiomhole's victory at the Court of Appeal.
The court had in November, 2008 overturned the declaration by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC that the PDP's Prof. Osehrienmen Osunbor as the winner of the April 2007 gubernatorial election.
The court declaration was significant for all parties. Anenih and his associates who fought Osunbor as governor over the control of the PDP structure for most of 2008 were said not to be too sad with the exit of their one time political associate. Indeed, there were reports of associates of Anenih popping champagne following the court judgment. It was a sort of bitter-sweet affair for Anenih and Osunbor given that Osunbor was before his gubernatorial ascent seen in political circles as a godson of Anenih.
Remarkably, Anenih and Oshiomhole got on to a good start following Comrade Oshiomhole's inauguration as governor that November. However, things soon became awry for the duo after Oshiomhole accused Anenih of interfering with the state's budgetary proposals.
(http://vml1.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Adams-Charles-Edo-2012.jpg?9d7bd4) (http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/05/edo-guber-booby-trap/adams-charles-edo-2012/)Gov.Oshinmhole and Gen. Airhiavbare "Anenih was a man who was not elected, but approved my first budget. He deleted money meant for the purchase of buses, building of schools and other infrastructural development from the budget," the Comrade Governor told a delegation of former PDP members who crossed over to the ACN last April. Even though Anenih is not on the ballot, Oshiomhole and the ACN often overlook the real candidate to cast the election as that between the incumbent and Anenih.
Campaigning and drumming
Airhiavbere and his running mate, Mr. Johnson Abolagba a former member of the House of Representatives, have nevertheless been going about campaigning and drumming what they allege to be the failures of the Oshiomhole administration. Their insinuations have been fiercely matched if not overwhelmed by the strong wave of support for Oshiomhole from across the state including from within the ranks of the PDP.
The nomination of Airhiavbere, a former General who left the Army just a little over a year ago was the first crisis to have hit the PDP. His choice ahead of other entrenched aspirants such as Mr. Kenneth Imasuagbon, famously known as the Rice Man for his distribution of rice to the needy during festivities, Prof. Julius Ihonvbere a former Presidential Adviser on Project Monitoring and Osunbor, the former governor almost paralysed the party as they alleged that the nomination process was crooked in the favour of Airhiavbere.
The choice of Abolagba, a
staunch loyalist of Anenih as the PDP running mate worsened matters as it was further seen as a way of entrenching Anenih's hold on the party in the state. Not surprisingly, since the nomination exercise almost four months ago, none of the aspirants has come out to actively support Airhiavbere.
Ihonvbere has joined the ACN while Osunbor even though still a member of the PDP has by his body movement showed his preference for Oshiomhole.
Imasuagbon with his own remarkable following among the youths has remained largely unenthusiastic about the choices facing the state on July 14.
Airhiavbere is believed to have been chosen purportedly as a carrot to win the support of the Bini speaking region of the State who have more than 52 per cent of the population.
The calculation of the PDP hierarchy as espoused by an internal research commissioned by the party is that "the PDP will garner 25 per cent of votes from the Edo North, where Oshiomhole come from; 70 per cent from the Edo Central, Chief Tony Anenih's area; and will win Edo South by 60 per cent."
The prospects of ethnic bias against Oshiomhole who comes from the minority Edo North senatorial district with a voting strength of about 25% of the total votes is not something the Oshiomhole camp is not totally unwary of. Recollection is made of the 1983 election when the Binis overwhelmingly voted for Ogbemudia against Ambrosse Alli who is believed to have performed well, even if not in the same scale as Oshiomhole.
However, the argument in support of Bini bias for Airhiavbere is quickly countered by several other factors. The first is that Airhiavbere is no Ogbemudia who had a track record of performance as a Military Governor. Airhiavbere's record of service has even come under attack from his community who in publications earlier this year disclaimed him.
Even more than that is the array of prominent Bini Chiefs and politicians who are marshalling the Oshiomhole campaign. The undiluted endorsement of the revered palace of the Oba of Benin for Oshiomhole has also not been disguised.
Several Bini chiefs including the Chief Priest, Chief Nosa Ishekure have endorsed Oshiomhole and dismissed any idea of a Bini agenda saying that Oshiomhole's performance in office has made him unassailable. What could have been a third factor as represented by the other political parties has yet to pick up. Chief Edebiri who is flying the banner of the ANPP but with the support of the Conference of Progressive Political Parties, CPPP has yet to score with his message that "both the ACN and the PDP have failed."
Vanguard Nigeria