BY SIMON EBEGBULEM, Benin City
...How they stand ahead of poll
Six days to the governorship election in Edo State, the three major political parties in the race: The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), are putting finishing touches to their campaigns.
The remaining parties: The Social Mega Democratic Party (SMDP), the National Conscience Party (NCP) and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) ,are expected to endorse the candidature of Governor Adams Oshiomhole, candidate of the ACN, and incumbent governor of the state. Oshiomhole is roaring with confidence, outlining his achievements so far to the electorate in the three and a half years of his administration.
In order to ensure that he campaigns in all the nook and cranny of the state, Oshiomhole hired a helicopter and continued to preach against god fatherism while harping on one man one vote. On his part, General Airhiavbere, the PDP candidate, has been battling to inform the people of the state that they must vote for the new PDP which he said he represents and assured to give the people better governance if voted into power.
Being a new comer into Edo politics having retired from the Army early last year, Airhiavbere must have been sweating it out battling the forces of Oshiomhole whom many believe is the emerging new god father in the politics of the state, having harvested many of the leaders of the PDP into his ACN.
Luckily for Airhiavbere however, the patriarchs of Edo politics: The Esama of Benin Kingdom, Chief Gabriel Igbinedion, Chief Tony Anenih and Dr Samuel Ogbemudia, seem to have come together to battle Oshiomhole. In addition, he will be hoping for any help that may come from the Federal Government, after the party had openly begged President Goodluck Jonathan to come to their aid, at least to halt Oshiomhole's political dominance in the state.
Consequently, a 45-member committee was set up by the national leadership of the PDP, to assist the home boys campaign in the state. That they have doing that but not without receiving knocks from the ACN dominated members in Edo South senatorial district.
Obviously, Airhiavbere is banking on his tribe people to help him, but, unfortunately, the Benins are predominantly Oshiomhole's supporters and that was why the entire Enigies and the Benin royal family have publicly acknowledged his achievements in the kingdom and assured him of their support.
(http://vml1.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Edo-Debate1.jpg?9d7bd4) (http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/07/edo-guber-candidates-throw-brickbats/edo-debate1/)L-R: PDP candidate, Airhiavbere; ANPP candidate, Edebiri; and ACN candidate, Gov. Oshiomhole at the debate The ANPP candidate, Solomon Edebiri, is also not sleeping. He has been campaigning seriously but, because the ACN and the PDP are the two major political parties in the state, people seem not to talk about him much. He is enjoying the support of those who said the PDP and the ACN are both the same, therefore they needed a change in the politics of the state.
He proved that he meant business in this election during the recent governorship debate where many scored him higher than Airhiavbere. As a matter of fact, Oshiomhole acknowledged, in an interview, that Edebiri seems to know the problems of Edo people more than Airhiavbere who stated during the debate that he knew the problem of the state when he was at NIPSS. Edebiri's advantage is that he has not worked for government before and therefore you will not ascribe any negative acts to him.
However, as the campaigns hot up, there have been accusations and counter accusations mainly between the ACN and PDP supporters. The ACN has persistently raised the alarm that the PDP was buying voter's cards particularly in Edo South, to reduce the number of voters in the area to the detriment of the ACN. As a matter of fact, a top PDP leader, who was alleged to be involved in the purchase of voter's cards escaped arrest by the whiskers on Tuesday in Benin City.
But the PDP has persistently denied buying cards. Rather, the PDP accused the ACN of buying voter's cards. However, with the achievements of Oshiomhole so far, he is expected to garner more votes in his Edo North senatorial district, where he comes from. Edo North has six local government councils.
Airiavbere's deputy Johnson Abulagba is from Owan West, but, in that area, Prof Julius Ihonvbere, who recently joined the ACN from the PDP, and the former deputy governor of the state, Rev Peter Obadan are expected to give Oshiomhole the votes in that area. As expected, Oshiomhole will have to sweat it out in Edo Central, Chief Anenih's domain. Edo Central has five local government councils. ACN lost this zone during the senatorial election but has since re-strategized.
But Oshiomhole is expected to win in Igueben, Chief Tom Ikimi's domain and Esan West and Central having won the heart of Iruekpen people where former Governor Osarhiemen Osunbor comes from. Edo South is predominantly ACN area.
This is where the Deputy Governor Pius Odubu, Chief of Staff Osarodion Ogie, South South Vice Chairman of ACN, Osagie Ize-Iyamu, Charles Idahosa, Speaker of the state House of Assembly, all hail from.
Edo South, with seven local governments, enjoys almost 60 per cent of the population of the state and no body becomes governor in the state without the support of these people. Oshiomhole is expected to win Ikpoba Okhai, Egor, Uhumnwonde, Orhiomnwon Ovia North East and Ovia South West. But he must have a strong and reliable force that can check the influence of Chief Igbinedion in Ovia North East and Captain Hosa Okunbor in Oredo if he intends to win in those two local governments.
Airhiavbere will enjoy votes in Edo Central due to Anenih's presence. He may win Esan North East and Esan South East. In Edo North, it will be a difficult task for him to win any of the local governments because of what people described as wonders, which Oshiomhole performed in this area through construction of roads. He may however get some pockets of votes in parts of Etsako Central due to the presence of Chief Dan Orbih, the state PDP Chairman and the Chief of Staff to the President, Chief Mike Oghiadohme.
And in Edo South where he comes from, there is another difficult task for him. He may win pockets of wards in Oredo because of Okunbor, some votes in Uhummwonde due to the presence of Roland Owie and some in Ovia where Igbinedion hails from. It is still unclear how Ogbemudia is going to help Airhiavbere because Oshiomhole's administration has turned Ogbemudia's Iheya area to what people described as small London. It will surely be difficult for him to campaign against Oshiomhole as he had confessed in the past while appreciating the efforts of the governor.
For Edebiri of the ANPP, he will be expecting to cash in on any crisis that may erupt between the ACN and the PDP. His ANPP does not have that solid political structure in the state that can give him the governorship. But in politics, any thing can happen. From what is on ground, Oshiomhole will win unless there is sabotage in his camp that can give the PDP advantage. Apart from that, Oshiomhole will defeat others with a large margin.
Vanguard Nigeria