SCENARIOS-Will Nigeria's cabinet back Yar'Adua? (http://www.businessdayonline.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7791:scenarios-will-nigerias-cabinet-back-yaradua&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=18)
23 January 2010, 2:01 am
A Nigerian court order requiring the cabinet to decide within 14 days whether President Umaru Yar'Adua is fit to govern should force the country's leaders to declare their hand after two months of uncertainty.Yar'Adua has been in Saudi Arabia since late November receiving treatment for a heart condition but has not formally handed over powers to his deputy, raising questions about the legality of government decisions in his absence.Attorney General Michael Aondoakaa said on Friday the cabinet would abide by the court order and pass a resolution within two weeks on his fitness to govern.But with elections due in 2011 likely to be hotly contested, clarifying who is in charge is only a first step in returning Africa's most populous nation to political stability.Following are some of the possible scenarios if the cabinet decides to back Yar'Adua, or if it decides to sack him.CABINET BACKS YAR'ADUAThe cabinet unanimously agreed on Dec. 2, less than 10 days after Yar'Adua left for Saudi Arabia, that there were no grounds on which to seek his resignation, rejecting calls for him to step down or prove his fitness to govern.It could pass such a resolution again, arguing that the president's health is improving and there is no medical reason to declare him incapable of holding office.Article 144 of the constitution states that the president ceases to hold office if a two-thirds majority passes a resolution declaring him incapable and the declaration is then verified by a medical panel including his personal doctor.If there is no two-thirds majority, Yar'Adua stays put.Much has changed since the December resolution, including street protests, court challenges to the legality of government decision-making and the vice president's deployment of the army to contain clashes in the central city of Jos.But most of the cabinet are Yar'Adua appointees and he also has received the backing of his party's leadership.Political analysts say Yar'Adua would either need to return to the country, or make a clear public broadcast from Saudi Arabia demonstrating his physical ability to govern, before the cabinet credibly could come out with a formal endorsement.If it backed him without evidence of his fitness, the legal challenges likely would continue or intensify.Should Yar'Adua return and demonstrate he is able to govern, the next question would be whether he stands for a second term in polls next year. If, as widely expected, he decides not to, his political influence quickly would wane, overshadowed by the candidate chosen to run on the ruling party ticket in 2011.CABINET DECLARES YAR'ADUA INCAPABLEShould a two-thirds majority of the cabinet pass a resolution declaring Yar'Adua incapable of fulfilling his duties and the medical panel verifies that judgment, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan would take over.There would be fierce competition within the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) for the position of vice president to replace Jonathan as his deputy would be seen by many as the de facto PDP candidate in polls in 2011.Jonathan, a southerner, is unlikely to stand in 2011 because of an unwritten agreement among the political elite that the presidency rotates between north and south every two terms.His influence as president, should he take power, would wane quickly if a powerful vice president were chosen.But under the constitution, there is no reason why Jonathan cannot stand in 2011 and some analysts say that with the machinery of power behind him he could in theory seek to do so.Critics of the cabinet say its decision in December to support Yar'Adua was motivated by the self-interested fear that were Jonathan to take over executive powers, he would sack many of them and appoint his own allies.
Source: Businessday :: News you can trust (http://www.businessdayonline.com)