Oyo: Poor performance, tradition as Alao-Akala's albatross
Oyo State Governor, Chief Adebayo Alao-Akala, has his hands full as he struggles to get a return ticket on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in state for the 2011 election. The Ogbomosho-born politician has two major obstacles to contend with. First, he faces internal rebellion from his own party. Members of the party are insisting that going by the tradition of the state, no governor ever did a second term and that on no account would he be the first to do it. One of such chieftains of the party, Chief Yekini Adeojo, still maintained only a week ago that if he must get the support of the party, he had to emerge from the primary that is fraud-free.
"If Akala emerges after the party leadership at the national has intervened and successfully harmonised all the groups, I will campaign for him. But, we are not going to primaries with those old Oyo State executives because they have been declared illegal by the INEC. The governor is not bigger than the party because it is the party that made him. If a party called him and he did not honour it, it shows he doesn't have respect for the party," Adeojo said.
But to sort of nail the coffin, he declared: "It is a taboo for Akala to say he wants to do it twice. Alao-Akala cannot do it twice. Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Chief Samuel Akintola and Chief Bola Ige who actually performed well did not succeed. Somehow, they all fell," he said.
Besides, he had to ensure that the several factions of the party in the state are harmonised to emerge. But most conspicuous of the factors that are militating against his second term bid is his poor performance record. The opposition has this to show for to the state why Alao-Akala should not be re-elected, granted that he scaled the hurdle of his party primaries.
The cohesive front of the opposition, being led by the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), certainly may not augur well for him. This is not 2007 when the opposition was in disarray and disunited. Pundits are of the view that only a miracle bordering on the ridiculous can see Alao-Akala ruling as governor of the state whose citizens pride themselves as the Pace Setters. "They call us the Pace Setters. When last did we set any pace?" is a common question being asked in political circles in Oyo State today. This means that Alao-Akala would need fatter political biceps to survive.
Kaduna: Yakowa may need more than luck
For Governor Ibrahim Patrick Yakowa who became the Governor of Kaduna State following the selection of Alhaji Namadi Sambo as Vice President of Nigeria, his major challenge will be how to beat entrenched interests in the state. Already, he has shown interest in the 2011 race.
For a start, the forces that almost made it impossible for him to assume the governorship of the state are still alive and kicking. That he emerged was because there was nothing, really, anybody can do about that constitutional provision, except the country is not running a democratic government. True, party leaders, under the auspices of the PDP Stakeholders Forum, in July 2010 adopted the incumbent governor for this year's polls.
Here, there is a zoning arrangement that is similar to that which the president is currently contending with. In fact, the governor once declared: "My case is not different from that of Mr. President on the issue of zoning". It was a measure of the intensity of the heat the issue has generated.
Governor Yakowa is from the minority Christian south of the state. And with a new Electoral Act which makes primaries compulsory, he has a battle of his life to fight. He may need more than just luck to continue on his seat.
Rivers: Rotimi Ameachi's 'revolution' meets people's desire
In Rivers State, the possibility of a new political party dislodging the ruling Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) is remote, and this is a verifiable fact. The Governor, Rt Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, has made it impossible for any other person from the PDP to want to aspire to be the governor of the state in 2011. How did he do it? Through performance. He did not only just provide visible, verifiable infrastructure, he has succeeded in keeping an enviable balance of account so much so that for two consecutive years, the state had been awarded a B+ rating by Fitch.
He got the endorsement of The Presidency when he declared on Wednesday, his intention to seek a second term in office. President Goodluck Jonathan, who was represented by Vice President Namadi Sambo, said: " With what we have seen on the ground, let me tell you the good news that we have endorsed everything Amaechi is doing and we also endorsed that he (Amaechi) should continue in 2011".
What further endorsement could a governor ask for? From within his party in the state, he is endorsed and the president has also endorsed him. Political pundits are of the view that even if the PDP should lose all the states in its fold, Rivers will remain and Amaechi would be governor.
Abia: T A Orji sure of ticket but ...
Governor T A Orji of Abia State has had a very difficult time with the state's political elite. He probably had more electoral cases which he contended with but he overcame all. Nevertheless, he has been able to do the little he could in the face of very meager resources and an operating environment made almost near impossible by a combination of forces. He has had to defect from the political party, Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) that brought him to power for the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). He is sure of getting the PDP ticket and therefore can contest.
But he will have to contend with the former governor of the state, Chief Orji Uzor Kalu, popularly called OUK. The former deputy governor, Chief Chris Akomas, is running too, on the platform of the PPA.
With such an opposition in a state that used to be a monolithic political party state, it is a sure call for him to work very hard to emerge as the governor beyond May 29, 2011.
His political opponents may latch on to the contentious issue of insecurity that had plagued the state until recently as a campaign point.
Chief Ikedi Ohakim: Opposition mounts, but...
Since July 25, 2009, when Governor Ikedi Ohakim publicly switched allegiance back to the People's Democratic Party (PDP) at a ceremony in Owerri attended by President Umaru Yar'adua, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, former President Olusegun Obasanjo and other party leaders, opposition against his 2011 ambition has been growing.
Both old and new political foes seem to have found a middle course to fight Ohakim's return. Only recently, former gubernatorial aspirant on the platform of the PDP, Senator Ifeanyi Araraume and former governor, Achike Udenwa, joined forces and defected to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). The impressive occasion may signal the fierce battle that is to come.
Ohakim may have no problem picking his party's ticket and he remains the candidate to beat, but if the current alliance between Udenwa and Araraume continues to wax strong, it will be battle royale in the Heartland State.
Akwa Ibom: Akpabio is sure to weather the storm
Governor Godswill Akpabio has since 2007 when he came into office, made impact on the infrastructure of the state. Besides, he has a cohesive government where all members of the cabinet are rooting for and rallying behind him for a second term in office.
If you ask any of the members of the cabinet, they would readily tell you that.
Another thing that will help his cause is that other parties in the state cannot boast of the structure that the PDP has, and because he is sure to pick the gubernatorial ticket, the rest will be mere formality.
However, he has to be very wary of the ethnic politics that is most likely going to be the only possible challenge on his way. But give or take, Akpabio, like Amaechi is almost sure of a second term.
Niger: Chief Servant in sure second chance
In Niger State, the Chief Servant, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, is sure to be on a jolly ride back to Government House. So far, he is the only person on the platform of the PDP that has indicated his interest. There have been aspirants, but many of them are gunning for other offices, especially the seats at the National Assembly.
Analysts have reasoned that the popularity of the Chief Servant and his populist projects are the many reasons why on the fringe, the seeming dearth of credible challengers are said to be working in favour of Governor Aliyu.
Besides, those who would have probably given the position a shot were said to have been firmly caught in the web of credibility crisis through a Justice Mayaki Judicial Commission of Inquiry into the financial dealing in the state by the previous administration.
Delta: Uduaghan, running two races at once
In Delta State, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan suddenly had a judicial jolt when his election was annulled by an Appeal Court in Benin after three and a half years. The rerun fixed for next Saturday, January 6, must be seen as the first leg of a two-legged race imposed on the medical doctor turned politician.
The advantage Uduaghan has over the opposition is the fact that he had an already-near perfect Campaign Organisation on ground. He also has the political structure that can deliver the state back to the PDP.
An insider told The Nation that the PDP is not taking the rerun lightly. But the party in the state also has its own crisis. The elders, led by Chief E K Clark, are not in the mood to recognise Uduaghan and some groups have defected prior to the annulment of Uduaghan's election. It may be a keenly contested rerun but the possibility of his return is bright.
Bayelsa: Sylva's chances bright
The second term bid of Governor Timipre Sylva to return to the Creek Haven (Government House), Yenagoa in 2011 is faced with a tough challenge, specially with the entrance of Chief Timi Alaibe, easily seen as a formidable opponent.
However, what seems to have brightened Sylva's chances is the position of President Goodluck Jonathan. Fears that Mr. President did not want him abated recently when feelers had it that he was not opposed to him. Then, INEC has decided to respect the October, 2009 judgment of the court on the State Executive of the PDP. This is also followed by the endorsement of his candidature by the National Assembly members at a ceremony in Kolokuma/Opokuma Local Government Area.
However, the lack of public declaration of support for Sylva by Jonathan, the way he has done for Amaechi, is seen as a minus. Also, the emergence of the Special Adviser to the President on Niger Delta Matters, Mr.Timi Alaibe, who has now gone to the Labour Party (LP), would mean that he still has to work hard for the election.
Ebonyi: Elechi needs more than luck
Those who have always imagined that the 2011 elections would be a mere formality for the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ebonyi State considering the absence of any serious opposition to the second term bid of Governor Martin Elechi should perish the thought.
Before now, indeed, after his election in 2007, and with little or no opposition to his emergence both within his party and outside, his supporters immediately got to work mobilising support for his second term bid. It is very noticeable that the state has been very peaceful, politically.
The once chummy relationship between the former governor , Dr. Sam Egwu and Governor Elechi is alleged to be suffering some strains.
But perhaps the most challenging to the governor just now is the declaration by former Ambassador to Greece and Minister of Culture under President Olusegun Obasanjo, Chief Franklin Ogbuewu, of his intention to contest the governorship election. For someone considered rather old for the job, Elechi may need more than just luck to retain his seat.
Enugu: Chime in a dicey situation
Enugu State Governor, Sullivan Chime, may have the approval of the majority of the people on his side but he is up against a formidable and well-organised interest. The running battle with the national Chairman of the PDP, Dr. Okwezilese Nwodo, may make things a little difficult for him.
There seems to be a determined effort to ensure that the structure of the party is taken away from the governor, a move he has been stoutly resisting. But with an increasing political rivalry within his party, only God knows what would happen in the next few days, especially as the primaries are fast approaching. Surely, the governor is in a dicey situation.
Katsina: Shema could have it
Governor Ibrahim Shehu Shema's desire to have a second term on the platform of the PDP may be easier than ever imagined. He has so successfully sold the idea of 'continuity' in government to the state.
At the time Shema succeeded the late President Umaru Yar'Adua, he told people in the state that he would 'continue' and complete the good works he had inherited from the previous administration.
Now, his campaigners say he has 'completed' all inherited projects and would want to 'continue' with the good works he had begun.
It was true that the state PDP was factionalised into several groups, all jostling for the party's soul at a time past. At last count, there were no less than five major factions.
But today, such groups that were fiercely opposed to his second term bid especially those called Abuja politicians have virtually vanished.
The one snag that Shema may have to contend with would be the popularity of the new opposition - Congres for Positive Change (CPC), led by former Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari.
Their 'Excellencies' on the march again (http://thenationonlineng.net/web3/saturday-magazine/special-report/23397.html)