Next pope an American? US cardinals a factor

[NewsCaster]

Gregorio Borgia / APPope Benedict XVI is flanked by Archbishop James Harvey, during the weekly general audience at the Vatican on Wednesday. Harvey will become the 11th cardinal from the U.S. to be on the panel that would elect any new pope.By Claudio Lavanga, NBC News ROME -- The red, or rather scarlet, carpet will be rolled in St. Peter's Basilica on Saturday for the elevation of six cardinals. The new so-called "princes of the church" will receive their ring, scarlet skullcap and the traditional biretta, a four-cornered hat, in a solemn ceremony presided by Pope Benedict XVI.

The ceremony won't only be a rare insight into one of the oldest and most colorful traditions in the Catholic Church, which with 1.1 billion adherents worldwide, represents more than half of the world's Christian population. It will also redefine the balance of power in the Catholic Church, and further increase the United States' influence in the election of the next pope.

Among the six cardinal-elects is James Harvey, an archbishop from Milwaukee who will become the 11th cardinal elector from the U.S., strengthening the country's position as the Vatican's second-largest voting bloc after Italy.  Cardinal electors are the members of the College of Cardinals who have not reached their 80th birthdays on the day the pope dies and are thus able to vote for the new prelate.


But as American author and John Paul II biographer George Weigel explains, the fact that American cardinals will represent almost 10 percent of worldwide electors in the next Conclave (the election of the pope), does not necessarily mean one of them will become the next Holy Father.

“The prominence of American cardinals in the current college reflects the vitality of the Catholic Church in the United States,” Weigel told NBC News. “But I don't think it likely that any American will be elected pope for as long as the United States remains the world's pre-eminent power."

What the selection of an American to be one of the new cardinal electors might show however, is that Pope Benedict XVI is acutely aware that the Catholic Church is swiftly ceasing to be predominately European religion. After all, with 134 million followers, Brazil alone has more Catholics than Italy, France and Spain combined, according to a major study released in 2011. Even the United States, with 75 million or  24 percent of the world's Catholics, is far ahead of any European country.

Harvey, 63, is a well-known and respected figure in the Vatican. He was named prefect of the papal household in 1998, and has since arranged daily meetings and engagements for Pope John Paul II first, and Benedict XVI later. Having lived for the past 30 years in the Vatican, he may be more familiar with the dome of St. Peter’s Basilica than the “Domes” at the Mitchell Park Conservatory, but he never severed his ties with his native city.

Once he receives his ring, skullcap and hat on Saturday, Harvey will become the third American to be elevated to cardinal this year, after Edwin Frederick O’Brien and Timothy Michael Dolan received the honor back in February.

External link: Cardinals by country

While chances of an American to be elected Pope are still slim, American cardinals are undeniably a force in the Vatican.

Timothy Dolan, the Archbishop of New York, has quickly become the superstar among American cardinals. His charismatic personality and quick wit  made him an instant hit with the media, who have been waiting for a camera-friendly cleric since the death of Pope John II, arguably the greatest Catholic communicator in the age of mass media.

Spencer Platt / Getty ImagesCardinal Timothy Dolan, Archbishop of New York, speaks with people waiting for free Thanksgiving groceries at the Lt. Joseph P. Kennedy Jr. Memorial Community Center in Harlem on Tuesday.

NBCNews