Agency predicts heavy rainfall with possible flooding, high crop yield

[NewsCaster]

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) has predicted heavy rainfall with possible flooding and landslides in most part of the country this year.

According to NIMET, the heavy rainfall will however result to bumper crop yield for farmers and improve water supply and stream-flows. It would also affect dam storages for municipal water supply, hydropower generation and irrigation, especially in the Northeast.

The prediction is different from last year when the agency forecasted delayed heavy rains with flooding and poor agricultural harvest.

Announcing this in Abuja at the public presentation of the 2011 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP), Director of Weather and Forecast Service in the Ministry of Aviation, Mr. Ifeanyi Nnodu, said the 2011 prediction was based on the transition from the El Nino phase to the cold phase otherwise known as the La Nina phase, which implies more rainfall than normal as against the dry spells in the country.

Nnodu added that the cold phase condition has been observed since Mid-August 2010 and that there is 98 per cent probability of maintaining the condition through the December-February 2011, decreasing by 50 per cent by April-June 2011 season and slightly further by 25 per cent by the July- September season.

He said the predicted length of rainy season would vary from 90 to 270 days, with a large part of the country experiencing longer than normal rainy season.

This implies that the agricultural sector is likely to witness a good season of yields as the length of rainy season and yearly rainfall amount would be adequate to support high quantity and quality of meat and production. Farmers may, however, be affected with the poor storage facility in the country due to the longer length of the growing season. They were advised to harvest when crops are mature and process for value addition when storage conditions are not favourable.

While the coastal and maritime sector may have increase in fish production in the country, the possibility of the rainstorm and gustiness may, however, exacerbate the prospect of coastal flooding and erosion, which may result in landslide and loss of lives and property.

The NIMET director also said the health sector may witness less incidence of meningitis in February as a result of the predicted low temperature, urging relevant authorities to provide adequate drainage to curb water stagnation that serves as breeding places for mosquitoes.

Minister of Aviation, Mrs. Fidelia Njeze, in an address, noted that the SRP would among others provide an early warning information on the impending rainy season and will assist stakeholders in aviation and agricultural sectors as well as other relevant agencies plan their activities for the coming season in a way that will maximise the benefits of the rains and also reduce the adverse effect.

"Nigerians do not need to nuture any fear, it is an opportunity to be more proactive and prepare themselves against any eventuality now that we know we should get ready to ensure that we address any adverse effect," she said, reiterating the commitment of the government to tackling the challenges of extreme weather and climate events and the associated impact on economic development.

The Director of NIMET, Dr. Anthony Anuforom, maintained that the changing weather condition constitutes a major threat to the socio-economic development, adding that there are indications that Nigeria may not meet its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015.

NIMET last year predicted delayed heavy rainfall with flooding and poor harvest. It had predicted that rainfall will likely start between late February in the southernmost part of the country and the first week of July in extreme North, with a delay of about two weeks over a large part of the country, especially over the South-West and the Sahel.

The predication had also indicated that some isolated places like Sokoto, Bauchi, Shaki, Ikom, Ogoja, Port-Harcourt, Warri and Yenegoa are likely to witness early onset of rain by up to one week.

It had also forecasted that the rainy season would end one to two weeks earlier than normal periods in most parts of the country, especially in the northern states of Kastina, Kano and environs.

NIMET also warned that episodic flooding and erosion in the coastal zone and river catchment might be inevitable, counseling that adequate publicity should be embarked upon to reduce damages.

Source: Agency predicts heavy rainfall, high crop yield