Why the North Korean Crisis Demands a New Diplomatic Approach

[Time]

Asia woke Friday to news that the Pentagon's intelligence arm now thinks Pyongyang has the ability to produce a nuclear weapon that can fit on a missile. The Defense Intelligence Agency document, disclosed by a Republican congressmen in a budget hearing, reportedly states with "moderate confidence" that North Korea has the know-how, even though the "reliability" of the technology is probably low. Although a Pentagon spokesmen downplayed the claim hours later, stressing that Pyongyang had not "fully tested, developed or demonstrated the kinds of nuclear capabilities referenced," the news is sure to exacerbate an already tense situation on the Korean peninsula. In recent weeks, with the U.S. and South Korea conducting annual joint military exercises, North Korea has turned up the dial on its war-mongering rhetoric, offering near daily provocations, including the threat of missile tests and even full-fledged nuclear war. Though South Koreans have largely dismissed the statements as standard-issue bluster, the North's propagandists have managed to generate no shortage of international attention, with a recent CNN/ORC poll suggesting that American fear of North Korea is at an all time high.  On Thursday, the leaders of the G-8 nations condemned North Korea's nuclear plans, a sentiment that was echoed by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who landed in Seoul Friday for talks. "We are all united in the fact that North Korea will not be accepted as a nuclear power," he told the press. "The rhetoric that we're hearing from North Korea is unacceptable by any standard." (MORE: In the Shadow of North Korean Threats, South Korea Shrugs) But even as Washington presses Pyongyang on its arsenal, a growing number of analysts worry that unconditional de-nuclearization is a strategic dead-end. Among academics, analysts and humanitarian workers, there is a growing consensus that North Korea will not abandon its nuclear program. "Virtually all long time observers from U.S., China, Russia and elsewhere, know that there is no prospect North Korea will give up weapons any time soon," said David Straub, a former U.S. diplomat who is now Associate Director of Stanford

Via: TIME GlobalSpin