Don't Underestimate Germany's Anti-Euro Party

[HuffingtonPost]

By Noah Barkin                

BERLIN, April 14 (Reuters) - The political establishment has  dismissed Germany's new anti-euro party as a fear-mongering  populist aberration that could implode even before a looming  federal election.                

But the first congress of the "Alternative for Germany"  (AfD) showed that the movement, launched only a few months ago  by a group of renegade academics, journalists and businessmen,  is striking a chord with voters and may prove an influential  force come September.                

Over 1,500 AfD supporters from across Germany packed into  the Intercontinental Hotel in central Berlin on Sunday to elect  the party leadership and formally approve a policy programme  that has one objective above all: an end to the euro and return  of the deutsche mark.                

The meeting was not without the sort of hitches one would  expect from a new party that is virtually devoid of experienced,  professional politicians.                

A speech by party founder Bernd Lucke was interrupted at one  point by a man waving a German flag. And delegates interjected  repeatedly to remind AfD leaders gathered on the stage about  proper protocol as motions were voted on.                

Still, the mood in the vast conference room where the  congress was held bordered on the euphoric at times. And the  attendees - mainly older men in suits with a sprinkling of  middle-aged women - said they were amazed at how much interest  the party was generating among friends and family members.                

"There is huge potential," said Alexander Gauland, a member  of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) for 50  years before he defected and signed up with the AfD a month ago.                

"What has become clear over the past weeks is that there are  many people who feel they are not being heard by the big  parties, especially when it comes to euro zone bailouts."                                

TABOO FOR DECADES                

Unlike some other anti-euro movements in Europe, like the  Dutch Freedom party of Geert Wilders or Marine Le Pen's National  Front in France, the AfD says it is neither nationalist nor  anti-immigration. Its programme calls for Canadian-style  policies to entice more skilled foreign workers to Germany.                

The party supports an "orderly" dismantling of the euro zone  because it believes this to be in Germany's best interests, but  also because it says this would help southern members of the  currency bloc that are struggling with crushing recessions and  rising unemployment.                

Above all, attendees in Berlin expressed frustration with  the lack of debate in Germany's big parties over policies that  have led to multi-billion euro bailouts for Greece, Portugal,  Ireland, Spain and Cyprus since the bloc's debt crisis first  erupted over three years ago.                

The rescues were backed not only by members of Merkel's  centre-right coalition, but also by the opposition Social  Democrats (SPD) and Greens.                

"This party offers Germany a chance. It is talking about  themes that were taboo for decades. Until AfD came along there  was no alternative, and that is undemocratic," said Henry  Strasen, a 47-year-old who runs a gas station in the town of  Luebben south of Berlin and previously supported the Free  Democrats (FDP), junior partners in Merkel's coalition.                

Thomas Rang, a 62-year old real estate developer and also an  FDP supporter before quitting the party in 2011, said he  sympathised with southern member states that were "trapped by  the euro".                

"They can't devalue. They are growing resentful of Germany.  I'm for Europe but not for this kind of Europe," said Rang, who  travelled from Duesseldorf for the congress.                

Since its founding in early March, over 7,500 people have  joined the new party. Spokeswoman Dagmar Metzger says three  times as many members have come from centre-right parties in  Merkel's ruling coalition than from the centre-left camp of the  SPD and Greens.                

Opinion polls show one in four Germans would consider  supporting the AfD. Despite that, most pollsters say it will be  difficult for the party to get above the five percent threshold  needed to enter parliament in September, although few are ruling  out the possibility.                

"The question is whether on election day people who  sympathise with this party actually vote for it," said Frank  Decker, a political scientist at Bonn University.                                

PIRATES LESSON                

That will depend on a number of factors.                

The AfD will need to collect 2,000 signatures in each of  Germany's 16 federal states over the coming months to stand in  the election at all.                

In a country where overt nationalism in politics is frowned  upon because of the crimes of the Nazi era, the new party must  also take care to keep out fringe elements that could embarrass  it and cloud its message. In front of the hotel on Sunday, some  people were handing out copies of "Junge Freiheit", or "Young  Freedom", a weekly that is popular with the far-right.                

Some believe AfD must become more than a one-issue party to  have a chance in September. The programme approved on Sunday  included recommendations on education, energy and integration  policy, as well as long passages on Europe.                

The Pirates, an upstart party that became a magnet for  protest voters in regional elections across Germany last year,  also provides a cautionary tale for the AfD. It has seen its  support crumble over the past months amid infighting and  organisational disarray.                

"We shouldn't overdramatise this party but we shouldn't  underestimate them either," said Wolfgang Bosbach, a senior  lawmaker in Merkel's CDU who has found himself ostracised within  the party for refusing to back euro zone bailouts but rules out  defecting to the AfD.                

"I don't believe they will get over 5 percent. It is very  hard to organise nationwide in just five months. But the voters  that switch to this party can really hurt the CDU."                

The irony is that if the AfD does do well in the election,  stealing a disproportionate number of votes away from Merkel's  centre-right bloc, it probably increases the likelihood that she   will be forced into a "grand coalition" with the SPD.                

Such a government would be expected to be even more  supportive of European rescues and closer economic integration  than the current administration - a result that several AfD  members said they preferred not to think about.                

"If the euro fails, Europe will not fail," party leader  Lucke, a Hamburg-based economist, told the cheering crowd in  Berlin, playing on one of Merkel's favourite phrases. "If the  euro fails, Angela Merkel will fail."     (Reporting by Noah Barkin; Editing by Jason Webb)

Via: HuffingtonPost