2015: Still, fear of violence rules the waves

[Mirror]

Though the 2015 general elections are still many months away, the indications on ground both at the national level and in some states of the federation are already creating fears in the minds of Nigerians that the elections may not be peaceful despite assurances from the police and other security agencies.

It will be recalled that in the 2011 elections in which President Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) defeated General Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), thousands of innocent Nigerians were massacred in violent clashes that trailed the announcement of the results in the northern parts of Nigeria.

In Bauchi State for instance, several young Southern graduates who were carrying out their national youth service programme were killed by street urchins and hoodlums who were allegedly sympathetic to General Buhari who lost that election.

And to make the matter worse, several months after that violence, no one has either faced the wrath of the law nor has the Federal Government put machinery in motion to avoid a repeat. Political analysts and watchers of political events believe that there is the possibility that Bauchi State may witness a repeat of this bloody post-election violence if care is not taken.

They based their premonition on the fact that the current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Senator Bala Mohammed, is eyeing the state's governorship seat and the incumbent, Mr. Isa Yuguda, is not favourably disposed to allowing the minister succeed him in 2015 because of the feeling that he knows that if a powerful politician like Mohammed succeeds him, he may be too powerful to be controlled.

Also, violence was the order of the day in Akwa Ibom months before and after the 2011 election, as the PDP and the ACN clash led to the death of many innocent souls and several assets belonging to the Akwa Ibom State Government were burnt by hoodlums who were angry, believing that the ruling party manipulated the outcome of that election.

Political analysts are also of the opinion that Akwa Ibom State may be one of the flashpoints of political violence come 2015 and warned that effective proactive measures must be put in place to avoid a repeat of the scenario that violently played itself out soon after the 2011 election.

Indications have also pointed to some other flashpoints and they include Ondo, Bauchi, Ekiti, Rivers and Kaduna states.

Ekiti state which traditionally has been a politically volatile state remains a hotbed of violence. Only recently, on September 19, 2013, the police dispersed supporters of Hon. Opeyemi Bamidele who has vowed to contest the Ekiti gubernatorial election against the incumbent, Dr Kayode Fayemi, who has been endorsed by the party leadership.

His supporters had gathered at a rally in Ado-Ekiti to mark his formal declaration to contest next year's governorship election in the state but some people were alleged to have orchestrated situations that compelled a police intervention and, ultimately, resulted in the disruption of the political rally by the governorship aspirant.

In the melee that followed, several hundreds of people, including newsmen, were wounded. Also, one of Bamidele's supporters was said to have been killed recently and the police are trying to find out the perpetrator of the dastardly act. Every indication points to possible violent clash in the state before and during the governorship race in 2014.

The situation in Rivers is not also a better one as supporters of President Goodluck Jonathan, whose leader seem to be the Minister of Education , Barrister Nyesom Nwike, are squaring up against persons loyal to the incumbent governor, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi.

At the national level, especially the situation within the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP is also an indication that all is not well, reinforcing the fear that violence may mar the forthcoming elections in many states of the federation.

Recently in Kaduna, what was planned to be a peaceful rally by youths in the northern parts of the country turned violent as what could be termed sectional political interests crept in. The crowds at the rally became divided between supporters of and opponents to President Jonathan's second term ambition.

Though there are many versions to the Kaduna story-from the alleged renting of crowds of youths from the 19 northern states by pro-Jonathan elements in the region to drum-support for his second term bid, to the suspected inducement of hoodlums by the president's opponents to disrupt the rally. It was, however, gathered that trouble broke out when the leaders of the rally made speeches in support of Jonathan and his bid for a second term.

The rally which was organised under the aegis of the Northern Youth Forum led by Jubril Tafida, a former vice-chairman of a local government in Kaduna State, was tagged a unity and peace rally but it soon resulted in violence and divisionism.

But as the occasion held at the Murtala Mohammed Square got on, it became apparent from the speeches of the organisers that it was actually purposed to buoy Jonathan's endorsement in the North in preparation for the formal campaign for the 2015 presidential election. In reaction, anti-Jonathan thugs, said to have been strategically placed in the crowd, were alleged to have pelted the rally's organisers and others at the venue with pebbles, bottles and other objects.

The police stepped in and used tear gas to disperse the rally. And in the stampede that followed, over 20 persons were reported to have been injured. Briefing newsmen later, the Kaduna State Commissioner of Police, Mr. Olufemi Adenaike, said due to the incident and to forestall further violence in the state, the State Security Council had "decided that there will be no more rallies, seminars or any other public function in Kaduna", the state capital, until further notice.

Also, sign of political intolerance is on the increase as epitomised by the police action which led to the invasion of meetings and stoppage of meetings of the new PDP in different places in Abuja. Also in many states nowadays, especially in Rivers, the Police have shown that they cannot be an unbiased arbiters as they have been taken sides in various crises and so many believe rather than forbid violence, police action may even be the cause of political violence in some areas.

It is also the opinion of many that the police are incapable of curbing political violence, as they are seen as lacking in men and materials to do this. Another sad development is that political violence in the country, especially at the national level, ahead of 2015 is also acquiring a tribal image which makes it even more dangerous.

In May, former militant leader, Mujahid Asari Dokubo, threatened that Niger Delta militants would take up arms again and throw the country into chaos if President Jonathan was not re-elected for a second term in 2015, a threat that attracted widespread reactions. Coming on the heels of that was a declaration by some ex-militants in the Niger Delta who issued a statement in which they declared former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar a persona non grata.

This pronouncement followed the August 31 special national convention of PDP, where Atiku led some state delegates and seven governors on a walkout that resulted in the formation of the splinter group in the party, the new PDP.

The Senate President, David Mark in reaction to this, said, "Those beating the drums of war should realise that no nation can survive two civil wars in one lifetime. These trends must stop, and we must all remember that the nation is greater than the sum total of its parts. Mark said: "Elections are two clear years away. Yet the collision of vaulting personal ambitions is over-heating the polity and distracting the onerous task of governance.

With so much work yet to be done, we as elected officials should focus on governance and justify our present mandates. "Overheating the polity is unnecessary, diversionary, divisive, destructive, unhelpful and unpatriotic. Into this vitriolic mix is being thrown a spate of mindless and distempered effusions that add no value whatsoever to the quest for national cohesion and development. The Senate President condemned divisive and provocative actions and statements credited to some political actors in recent times in the lead up to 2015.

The Civil Liberties Organization (CLO), a human rights group in the country, has also warned that statements of many politicians, especially those from Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and those from All Progressives Congress (APC), have the potential of threatening democracy, create chaos and undermine human rights and civil liberties.

Speaking through its Executive Director, Ibuchukwu Ezike, CLO recalled that such was the case before the last 2011 election which has left many scars on families across the country. "We recall that in the last elections, many Nigerian citizens who came out to exercise their franchise were injured or killed. Pre-election violence also erupted in states such as Akwa Ibom, which culminated in the destruction of human lives and property.

Thus, many wives were made instant widows; several husbands, widowers; and numerous children, orphans," he said. Condemning recent events in Akwa Ibom State, Ezike reminded that recently, the immediate past Secretary to the State Government, Umanah Umanah, and his supporters threatened the breach of peace if he was not chosen as the party's candidate for the governorship of the state for the 2015 election.

According to the CLO, "We are alarmed by the several sponsored advertorials and publication in the media credited to the former SSG, where serious threats to security of lives and property were allegedly mentioned." The group advised the former SSG to go about his quest, which it believes to be a legitimate aspiration, without threats which could easily overheat the system.

It went on to urge security agencies in the country to rise to the challenge of ensuring that political activities in the country did not end up degenerating into conflicts and anarchy, capable of breaching peace, liberty and sanctity of life. Realizing that peace is the best to happen to any country Nigerians have been urged to shun violence in the 2015 elections in the country.

The Coordinator, Nigerian Youth for Peace, Harmony and Good Governance (NYPHGG), Comrade Enugu Peter Maduabuchi said for the past few months, the Nigerian press has been awash with unrestrained comments from politicians and non politicians alike calling for war if a particular person or ethnic group did not become president in 2015.

According to Maduabuchi, "those calling for violence are people who have not experienced war or who have not lived in a violenceprone community. "In Africa: Congo, Somalia, Sudan, Ethiopia even recently Ivory Coast experienced violence in its polity. I don't pray for Nigeria to experience such a situation," he said.

The coordinator reminded his audience that there cannot be progress in an atmosphere of rancour and violence, adding that Nigeria has risen above that stage having experienced the Biafra war from 1967-1970. The rest of what happened during those years is now history.

He said film of the civil war should be watched again and again to bring our sensibility to order. "War cannot solve any problem. Rather, it destroys what have been put together for years. Nigerian politicians should check their utterances especially during debates and electioneering campaigns. "As youths, we should strive to make the country governable so that at the end of it all, we may reap the dividends of democracy", he advised.