Pattern Seen in Alleged Chemical Arms Use in Syria

[Time]

(BEIRUT)  — The instances in which chemical weapons are alleged to have been used in Syria were purportedly small in scale: nothing along the lines of Saddam Hussein's 1988 attack in Kurdish Iraq that killed thousands. That raises the question of who would stand to gain as President Bashar Assad's regime and the opposition trade blame for the alleged attacks, and proof remains elusive. Analysts say the answer could lie in the past — the regime has a pattern of gradually introducing a weapon to the conflict to test the international community's response. (More: The Thick Red Line: White House Cautious on Chemical Weapons Use in Syria) The U.S. said last week that intelligence indicates the Syrian military has likely used sarin, a deadly nerve agent, on at least two occasions in the civil war, echoing similar assessments from Israel, France and Britain. Syria's rebels accuse the regime of firing chemical weapons on at least four occasions, while the government denies the charges and says opposition fighters have used chemical agents in a bid to frame it. But using chemical weapons to try to force foreign intervention would be a huge gamble for the opposition, and one that could easily backfire. It would undoubtedly taint the rebellion in the eyes of the international community and seriously strain its credibility. Mustafa Alani, an analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Geneva, said it would also be difficult for the rebels to successfully employ chemical agents. "It's very difficult to weaponize chemical weapons," he said. "It needs a special warhead, for the artillery a special fuse." In the chaos of Syria's civil war, pinning down definitive proof on the alleged use of weapons of mass destruction is a tricky task with high stakes. President Barack Obama has said any use of chemical arms — or the transfer of stockpiles to terrorists — would cross a "red line" and carry "enormous consequences." Already, the White House's announcement that the Syrian regime appears to have used chemical arms has ratcheted up the pressure on Obama

Via: TIME GlobalSpin