Jonathan and 2011: To run or to run away?

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Why was a group in the presidency very uncomfortable with the idea of Goodluck Jonathan, then vice president, stepping in as acting president while President Umaru Yar'Adua was admitted in a Saudi Arabian hospital until February 9 when the National Assembly took the historic decision of passing a resolution to appoint him acting president? 

This is a question many Nigerians asked at that time. But the fear of 2011 was one of the reasons. With the lacklustre performance of Yar'Adua after more than two years as president, the fear was that if Jonathan is given the opportunity and he performs very well, he might be tempted to take a shot at the presidency in 2011. That fear manifested in the announcement by the leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that the party would not re-zone the presidency for 2011, meaning that Jonathan and any other person from the south having any idea should forget it until 2015. 

A source in presidency told BusinessDay then that the cabal that held sway while Yar'Adua was lying on his sick bed at the King Faisal Hospital and Research Centre, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, was very jittery that sterling performance by Jonathan could just throw the presidency his way because as president, he could force the party to reverse its earlier decision on zoning.   

The source told BusinessDay that Jonathan was not interested in running for presidency, that his objective was simply to use the little time remaining before the next civilian government takes over in May 2011 to focus on key issues like the Niger Delta problem, electricity and electoral reform. According to the source, the acting president's wish was that he would restore Nigeria's lost glory such that he would leave indelible mark in the minds of Nigerians such that he could walk into any gathering anywhere in Nigeria when he is out of office without security and he would be appreciated by the audience. The source said that is Jonathan's wish.   

These are issues that are dear to the generality of Nigerians. Solving them conclusively will require Jonathan to be in power beyond 2011. Miriki  Ebikibina, acting state chairman of Action Congress (AC) in Bayelsa State, wants him to address electoral reforms and credible elections to check miss-governance. "We want him to tackle the Niger Delta issue headlong, and resolve the Niger Delta issue to free the economy." Many others including key persons in the Bayelsa State government want Jonathan to move the amnesty programme to a logical conclusion and tackle power supply.   

Around Nigeria, the people seem to agree on resolving Niger Delta crisis through power supply, fast-forwarding the economy through policy actions that have over-delayed, and electoral reforms ending in smooth general elections in 2011.   

One of his former aides said it is performance that Nigerians cared for. "Hunger knows no tribal marks", he said. Others think Jonathan should test his popularity for once at the polls, recalling that the acting president had never had the privilege of presenting himself and his manifesto to the voters for a decision. Many others, however, warned him not to try running for an election, insisting that he belongs to a party that has ceded the slot to the north, and that as a loyal party man who has benefited from the zoning, he is bound by honour to abide by it. Yet, others think Jonathan does not have the massive tribal following to stage such a 'coup' against the owners of the slot.   

But, does Jonathan possess the political structure or strength to capture and hold down power? Ebikibina of AC is vehement in his belief that it is not political structure, but its absence that rather propelled him to where he is today. "It is just natural pressure that places him in good stead. In the present circumstance, it is pressure to uphold the constitution for the sake of stability that brought him in, not due to any structure." He believes that Jonathan's attributes work harder for him than structure. For Jonathan's critical attributes, he said: "He is a good follower, dedicated to guided loyalty, steadfast and upright. He was dedicated to DSP despite daunting challenges until fortunes changed. He adjusts easily." Those who shout him down may be in for a sucker punch, while those who urge him hard may be in for a rude shock, a traditional ruler in Bayelsa warned.   

True, Jonathan may not have structures but all other structures and forces usually work for him the moment it is time for his good luck to click. Close associates in Bayelsa revealed how even DSP Alamieyeseigha (former governor under whom Jonathan served as deputy before taking over after Alamieyeseigha was impeached) whose camp had once derided and hated Jonathan, worked tirelessly behind the scene to rally support of rival camps in Bayelsa and other south-south states to ease his way to become acting president. "Yes, DSP equally talked to those governors in the region that were being suspected to oppose Jonathan's emergence, to calm down".   

Many Bayelsans believe that Jonathan would overcome his travails, no matter what. There is huge belief that oil would bounce back, both in prices and quantity, just because Jonathan (with his good luck) is on the throne. And, as for the arguments and speculations on whether Goodluck Ebele-Jonathan would likely contest the 2011 elections or not, some people say whichever way he goes would have great significance. "If he achieves much and steps down, it's true to his character; but if he achieves much and continues, it is in his star", a close associate concluded. 

Many in Bayelsa State felt in 2005 that Jonathan was going to be easily plucked off in 2007, but the humble servant used the one year he had to choke his people who simply waved him on. This time around too, he seems to have another one year to unleash his brand of "developmental governance" before the presidential primaries.  Does he have the financial leverage to turn Nigeria around like he did in Bayelsa, going by the huge deficit (of about N1.8trn) in 2010 federal budget? Benson Sunday Agadaga, one of those who have known the acting president from childhood, attended same schools and worked with him, does not share the financial concerns.  He told BusinessDay in his home in Yenagoa, "Why is he Goodluck Jonathan, if Nigeria's finances do not change in a surge? We expect oil fortunes to skyrocket both in prices and volume as it did the moment he became governor. (It has surged upward to over $80 per barrel for the first time since Olusegun Obasanjo left office). Nigeria is targeting three million barrels per day to cruise home and dry and with good luck, it is going to be real. With peace in the oil region, investments will return and all oil wells will be gushing the liquid gold and all forgotten targets will be met". 

Agadaga was the man who turned the education sector around in the state as chairman of the Universal Basic Education (UBE) under Jonathan. He is also a former permanent secretary and later information commissioner. He is not alone in his conviction that the mere fact that a man from the core-oil region is at the helm of affairs in Nigeria will create stability and attract the confidence of the international investment community to Nigeria as an emerging and stable market. Even opposition leaders in Bayelsa politics including Ebikibina of AC believe that resolving the Niger Delta problem alone would free the economy. "The Niger Delta is the problem of Nigeria today.   

If he resolves it, he would have freed the economy to run on all fours", he told BusinessDay in Yenagoa.

Jonathan and 2011: To run or to run away?

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