Petrol Price Approaches ₦900 Per Litre Amid Anticipated OPEC+ Output Expansion

The cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, is on the verge of hitting ₦900 per litre across Nigeria, as global oil dynamics tighten and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) signal a fresh phase of production hikes.

Fuel marketers in major cities including Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, and Kano are already adjusting pump prices, with several outlets selling petrol between ₦860 and ₦880 per litre. According to sources within the downstream petroleum sector, the ₦900 threshold may be breached within days unless international oil prices retreat significantly or the naira strengthens against the dollar.

This development comes amid expectations that OPEC+, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, may soon announce a coordinated increase in crude oil production. While such a move is aimed at stabilizing global energy markets, it may only offer relief in the medium term. In the short run, uncertainties around supply transitions and geopolitical tensions continue to drive crude oil prices upward.

Nigeria, which heavily relies on imported petroleum products due to underperforming refineries, is particularly vulnerable to global oil price shifts. Fuel importers are grappling with rising landing costs, reportedly exceeding ₦600 per litre, following a surge in Brent crude prices and logistical expenses. These costs are compounded by the persistent depreciation of the naira, which is now trading well above ₦1,500 to the dollar on the parallel market.

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has urged marketers not to exploit the situation, warning against hoarding and arbitrary price increases. However, operators argue that sustaining operations has become increasingly difficult due to volatile foreign exchange rates, inflation, and rising logistics costs.

The impact on everyday Nigerians is already evident. Commuters are bearing the brunt as transport fares across the country rise sharply. In Lagos and Abuja, bus fares on popular routes have increased by 15–20% in recent weeks, forcing many residents to cut back on non-essential travel.

Market vendors and small business owners are also feeling the pressure. The cost of transporting goods from rural areas to urban centres has risen significantly, leading to higher food prices and worsening inflation. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has previously noted that energy costs are a key driver of Nigeria’s inflation rate, which remains above 30%.

In response to growing concerns, government officials have hinted at possible interventions to cushion the impact on citizens. While a return to direct fuel subsidies appears unlikely, discussions are reportedly underway on temporary tax waivers for petroleum importers and increased monitoring of pricing practices at filling stations nationwide.

However, analysts warn that any form of market distortion could disincentivize future investments in the petroleum downstream sector. Since the official removal of petrol subsidies in mid-2023, the government has emphasized deregulation as the path toward transparency and competitiveness in the fuel market.

Some experts argue that the current crisis highlights the urgent need for Nigeria to ramp up domestic refining. Despite the commissioning of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, commercial production and local distribution have yet to begin in full swing. Until local refining takes off meaningfully, Nigeria will remain exposed to global supply shocks and currency volatility.

In the meantime, the anticipated OPEC+ production increase may offer some relief to global markets if effectively implemented. However, industry experts caution that such relief may not immediately translate into lower fuel prices for Nigerian consumers due to the lag in supply chain adjustments and persistent naira weakness.

Oil prices have remained elevated in recent weeks, with Brent crude hovering around $88–$90 per barrel. If prices remain at that level or rise further, local petrol prices could surge past ₦900 and even approach ₦950 per litre in coming months—especially in regions far from major supply depots.

For millions of Nigerians already facing economic hardship, another hike in petrol prices would deepen the cost-of-living crisis. Businesses may cut staff or reduce operating hours to manage expenses, while households could be forced to adjust budgets to accommodate higher transportation and energy costs.

As global oil policies continue to influence local realities, Nigeria’s path to fuel price stability will depend largely on internal reforms, improved forex liquidity, and the operationalization of its local refineries. Until then, Nigerians may have to brace for more volatile pump prices in the months ahead.