-
India,
Vietnam,
Indonesia,
and
the
Philippines
are
forecast
to
lead
in
both
speed
and
scale
of
trade
growth
from
2024
to
2029
- South Asia and Southeast Asia regions set to achieve fastest trade volume growth from 2024 to 2029
- Asia remains central to global production networks, as the region benefits from supply chain diversification strategies
- Global trade recovered in 2024 and is forecast to grow faster over the next five years than during the preceding
SINGAPORE – Media OutReach Newswire – 14 March 2025 – DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business have released the latest DHL Trade Atlas 2025, providing a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade. The report reveals that Asia’s trade outlook remains positive, mirroring global trade, which is forecast to grow faster over the next five years compared to the preceding decade. In fact, a few countries in Asia – India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines – are expected to see especially strong growth. The South Asia as well as Southeast Asia regions are also set to outperform other regions in terms of trade growth.
DHL
Trade
Atlas
2025
reveals
Asia
trade
set
for
continued
growth
“As
we
look
towards
the
future
of
trade
in
Asia,
it’s
clear
how
trade
growth
has
proven
surprisingly
resilient
in
the
face
of
recent
disruptions.
With
the
ongoing
diversification
of
supply
chains
that
continues
to
reshape
the
commerce
landscape,
Asia
has
steadfastly
emerged
as
a
key
player
in
the
global
market,”
said
Ken
Lee,
CEO
–
Asia
Pacific,
DHL
Express.
“However,
we
must
approach
this
promising
outlook
with
a
measured
perspective,
recognizing
the
uncertainties
and
volatility
that
continue
to
characterize
the
global
business
environment.
As
businesses
diversify
supply
chains,
it
is
essential
they
stay
innovative
in
their
strategy
and
proactive
in
seeking
out
new
routes
to
growth.”
New leaders in trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines
Between 2024 and 2029, four countries in Asia are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
In the next five years, India is anticipated to retain its third-place rank on the scale dimension as well as jump 15 spots to the 17th position on the speed dimension as its compound annual trade volume growth rate rises from 5.2% to 7.2%. Additionally, India may also deliver 6% of the world’s trade growth, behind China (12%) and the United States (10%).
The prospects of Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are bright as they have displayed substantial potential to benefit from supply chain shifts and diversification strategies. Vietnam is expected to maintain a 6.5% compound annual trade volume growth rate over the 2024-2029 period and promote one position to rank fifth on the scale dimension. Indonesia is predicted to retain its 12th place on the scale rankings, while rising from 33rd to 25th in the speed rankings. More notably, the Philippines is set to leap 114 positions to rank 15th on the speed dimension, and rise from 68th to 30th on the scale dimension.
South Asia and ASEAN to produce faster growth rates than other regions
South Asia and the ASEAN regions are forecasted to deliver the fastest trade volume growth among major world regions from 2024 to 2029 with CAGR of 5.6% and 5.0%, respectively. In fact, trade growth is also expected to accelerate substantially compared to the previous five-year period in these regions. Other regions such as North America and Europe are forecast to grow at rates of 2.7%.
The DHL Trade Atlas also finds that the center of gravity of world trade has shifted. The shares of trade conducted by the world’s major geographic regions has changed since 2000, with the most dramatic change observed in Asian economies. Between 2000 and 2024, the share of world trade borne by South & Central Asia rose from 2% to 5%. However, a major region like Europe saw its share of world trade decrease from 41% to 36% for the same period.
New record in long-distance trade as Asia becomes central to global production networks
Despite
widespread
interest
in
nearshoring
and
producing
goods
closer
to
customers,
the
DHL
Trade
Atlas
2025
demonstrates
that
trade
has
not
become
more
regionalized
overall.
Actual
trade
flows
indicate
the
opposite
trend.
In
the
first
nine
months
of
2024,
the
average
distance
traversed
for
all
traded
goods
reached
a
record
5,000
kilometers,
compared
to
just
over
4,500
kilometers
in
2000.
This
development
can
be
attributed
to
the
fact
that
Europe
and
North
America
have
increasingly
traded
with
Asia,
as
“Factory
Asia”
becomes
central
to
global
production
networks.
Faster
global
trade
growth
compared
to
the
previous
decade
Recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029. This roughly aligns with GDP growth and represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade. Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace.
“While threats to the global trading system must be taken seriously, global trade has shown great resilience because of the large benefits that it delivers for economies and societies,” said Steven A. Altman, Senior Research Scholar and Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “While the U.S. could pull back from trade – at a significant cost – other countries are not likely to follow the U.S. down that path because smaller countries would suffer even more in a global retreat from trade.”
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 features a wealth of data-driven insights and analysis on global trade and its prospects. It is an up-to-date resource for business leaders, policymakers, educators, students, media, and the interested public. It includes concise one-page profiles summarizing the trade patterns of nearly 200 countries and territories that comprise over 99% of world trade, GDP, and population.
The free interactive content available at dhl.com/tradeatlas is a new feature of the report. The website enables users to customize analyses and explore trade trends by specific countries, regions, and categories of goods. Additionally, it offers convenient options for downloading data and images.
The report was commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business. It was finalized in February 2025 using data and forecast updates through January 2025.
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Hashtag: #DHLTradeAtlas #GlobalTrade #SupplyChainDiversification
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