Nigeria’s oil and gas sector is poised for a major boost as new investments by local and international energy companies are projected to add about 600,000 barrels of crude oil and 2.0 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day to national production capacity. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed this, saying the development marks a turning point in the country’s quest to restore its position as Africa’s leading hydrocarbon producer.
According to the Commission, several upstream projects that have reached advanced stages of development are expected to come onstream between late 2025 and 2026. These include a mix of deepwater, marginal field, and joint venture operations designed to improve production efficiency and attract more foreign direct investment into the sector.
NUPRC Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, said the new production capacity is the outcome of deliberate policy reforms and renewed investor confidence following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). He noted that the PIA has provided a more transparent regulatory framework, enabling private and institutional investors to commit capital to long-term oil and gas projects.
“In the next 12 to 24 months, Nigeria will witness a significant rise in oil and gas output as several new projects reach completion. Our focus on regulatory clarity, host community engagement, and fiscal stability is beginning to yield results,” Komolafe stated.
He explained that the additional 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd) would come from both greenfield developments and the expansion of existing facilities operated by international oil companies (IOCs) and indigenous firms. On the gas side, the expected increase of 2.0 billion standard cubic feet per day (scf/d) will feed into domestic supply, power generation, and export markets through projects like the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline and the expansion of Nigeria LNG’s Train 7.
Komolafe also revealed that the Commission has identified more than 40 active oil and gas development projects in various stages of execution, worth an estimated $50 billion in total investment. He said the NUPRC is working closely with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and other stakeholders to fast-track project approvals, reduce bureaucratic bottlenecks, and ensure that the country meets its OPEC production quota sustainably.
“The reforms we have introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act are aimed at promoting transparency, reducing delays in project execution, and fostering collaboration between regulators and investors. We are confident that these investments will translate into measurable production growth, increased export earnings, and job creation,” he added.
Industry analysts say the expected rise in production could help Nigeria reclaim its standing as a major oil supplier in Africa and stabilize its foreign exchange earnings. The country’s crude output has fluctuated over the past few years due to vandalism, oil theft, and underinvestment in critical infrastructure. However, with renewed exploration and development efforts, the outlook for the sector appears increasingly positive.
Energy economist Dr. Nnenna Okoro noted that the new projects will play a crucial role in boosting Nigeria’s energy security. “If executed as planned, the additional crude and gas output will not only strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position but also provide the much-needed feedstock for the domestic refining and power sectors. It’s a strategic win for the economy,” she said.
The NUPRC also emphasized the importance of gas development in driving industrialization and reducing carbon emissions. Komolafe stated that Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas” initiative remains central to government policy, with a focus on harnessing gas for power generation, fertilizer production, and transportation.
He further noted that with the completion of the ongoing gas infrastructure projects — including the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) pipeline — Nigeria will be better positioned to meet growing domestic demand while expanding exports to regional and international markets.
In addition, the Commission said it has intensified its engagement with host communities to ensure that new projects are executed smoothly and that local stakeholders benefit directly from oil and gas developments in their areas. Under the Host Communities Development Trust provisions of the PIA, oil firms are now required to contribute three percent of their operating expenditure to fund local development projects.
Komolafe reiterated that this new approach has helped reduce tensions and foster cooperation between operators and host communities. “Peaceful collaboration is essential to achieving production growth. The new framework ensures that communities see tangible benefits from oil and gas operations, which in turn enhances project security and sustainability,” he said.
The anticipated output surge also aligns with the government’s broader economic diversification agenda, which seeks to strengthen local refining, petrochemical production, and gas-based industries. The Dangote Refinery, alongside ongoing modular refinery projects and gas processing plants, is expected to benefit from the additional feedstock, thereby enhancing Nigeria’s self-sufficiency in refined petroleum products.
Moreover, the projected increase in gas output is expected to bolster the country’s transition to cleaner energy sources. With global energy markets shifting toward low-carbon solutions, Nigeria’s vast gas reserves present a unique opportunity to balance energy growth with environmental responsibility.
Experts have commended NUPRC’s proactive stance, noting that improved collaboration with investors, streamlined licensing processes, and stable fiscal terms have been instrumental in reviving investor interest. The recent conclusion of the 2024 Marginal Field Bid Round and the upcoming 2025 Mini-Bid Round are further expected to unlock new exploration opportunities.
As the new investments take shape, Nigeria’s oil and gas sector stands at a defining moment — one that could determine its ability to sustain production growth, create jobs, and strengthen the nation’s economic resilience. With an estimated 600,000 barrels of crude oil and 2.0 billion cubic feet of gas set to be added daily, the country is charting a new course toward energy sufficiency, industrial expansion, and long-term fiscal stability.
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