Nigeria Missing as IMF Lists Africa’s Fastest-Growing Economies

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest economic outlook for Africa, highlighting several countries that are projected to record strong growth in 2025 — but notably, Nigeria, the continent’s largest economy, is missing from the list. The omission has sparked fresh conversations among analysts about the structural challenges weighing on Nigeria’s economic performance despite recent policy reforms.

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report released this week, economies such as Niger, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, and Rwanda are expected to lead Africa’s growth in 2025, with GDP expansion rates projected between 6.5% and 10%. The report attributes these impressive figures to robust investment in infrastructure, improvements in governance, increased agricultural productivity, and a stable macroeconomic environment.

In contrast, Nigeria’s growth projection was placed at 3.0%, a figure well below the sub-Saharan African average of 3.8%. The IMF observed that while Nigeria has made progress in stabilizing its fiscal and monetary policies, persistent inflation, limited export diversification, and challenges in the energy and manufacturing sectors continue to slow down overall economic momentum.

The IMF’s report also pointed out that Nigeria’s inflation rate — which has hovered above 18% in recent months — remains one of the highest in Africa, eroding purchasing power and weakening domestic consumption. It further noted that foreign exchange shortages and policy uncertainty have discouraged foreign investment and undermined business confidence.

In contrast, countries like Niger and Senegal have benefited from new oil and gas discoveries, increased capital inflows, and improved fiscal management. Rwanda and Ethiopia have also continued to attract international investors due to their sustained focus on industrialization, digital innovation, and infrastructure development.

The IMF’s analysis indicates that Nigeria’s economy, though large and resource-rich, has struggled to translate its potential into sustained growth. The report cited structural bottlenecks, including low productivity, poor electricity supply, insecurity in food-producing regions, and inefficiencies in public spending as major impediments to higher growth.

Economists have reacted to Nigeria’s exclusion from the list of fastest-growing African economies with concern, describing it as a wake-up call for policymakers. Dr. Uche Nwokoma, a Lagos-based economist, said the IMF’s projections underscore the need for Nigeria to diversify its economy beyond oil and address key challenges in governance and production.

“Nigeria’s economic fundamentals remain weak because we still depend heavily on oil revenue, which is volatile. We must focus on building a productive economy driven by manufacturing, technology, and agriculture. Until that happens, our growth will continue to lag behind smaller but more diversified African economies,” Nwokoma said.

Similarly, the Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Dr. Chinyere Almona, emphasized that Nigeria’s slow growth is reflective of policy inconsistency and weak institutional capacity. She noted that while reforms by the current administration — such as the removal of fuel subsidies and efforts to unify exchange rates — are commendable, they need to be supported by targeted investments in infrastructure and human capital development.

“The IMF report highlights what we already know — that Nigeria’s economy has vast potential but lacks efficiency. We must take deliberate steps to create an enabling environment for private sector growth, ensure fiscal discipline, and expand non-oil exports,” Almona added.

The IMF also called on African countries, including Nigeria, to strengthen fiscal resilience by reducing public debt and improving revenue generation through better tax administration. Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio remains one of the highest in the world, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Despite the relatively modest growth forecast, the IMF acknowledged Nigeria’s efforts to stabilize its foreign exchange market and curb inflation through tighter monetary policies. It praised the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for introducing measures to improve liquidity and enhance investor confidence but warned that more needs to be done to strengthen policy coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities.

In recent months, Nigeria’s government has introduced several initiatives aimed at stimulating economic growth, including investment in agriculture, infrastructure renewal, and digital economy expansion. However, analysts argue that implementation remains slow, and the benefits of these policies are yet to be fully felt by the population.

On the positive side, Nigeria continues to maintain its position as Africa’s largest economy by nominal GDP and remains an attractive market for consumer goods and financial services due to its large population. The IMF report emphasized that Nigeria’s medium-term growth prospects could improve significantly if reforms are sustained and security challenges in the northern and central regions are addressed.

Other African economies listed among the continent’s fastest-growing include the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is benefiting from strong demand for critical minerals, and Tanzania, where steady tourism recovery and investment in renewable energy are driving expansion.

In conclusion, while the IMF’s growth forecast paints a promising picture for several African nations, Nigeria’s exclusion from the list of the continent’s fastest-growing economies highlights the urgent need for deep structural reforms. Analysts believe that with consistent policy direction, stronger governance, and a focus on productive sectors, Nigeria could still reclaim its position as a regional growth leader in the coming years.

 

For now, however, the IMF’s findings serve as a reminder that economic size alone does not guarantee rapid growth — and that sustainable development requires sound economic management, innovation, and effective leadership.