Nigeria Risks Oil Production Decline Without Fresh Discoveries – NAPE

The Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) has warned that the nation’s crude oil production could decline significantly in the coming years if urgent efforts are not made to discover new oil reserves and revamp exploration activities. The association cautioned that Nigeria’s failure to replace depleting reserves with fresh discoveries threatens its long-term energy security, export capacity, and fiscal stability.

Speaking at a pre-conference media briefing in Lagos ahead of the 42nd NAPE Annual International Conference and Exhibition, the association’s President, Abiodun Ogunjobi, emphasised that Nigeria’s oil reserves are aging while exploration activities have slowed down due to funding challenges, regulatory bottlenecks, and policy uncertainty.

He stated that most of the country’s oilfields were discovered over 40 years ago, with little or no significant exploration in frontier basins in recent years. According to him, without substantial investment in exploration, Nigeria could see a decline in oil production capacity over the next decade.

“Nigeria’s daily crude production has struggled to remain above 1.5 million barrels per day, which is well below its OPEC quota. Many of our producing fields are maturing and will soon reach their economic limits. Unless we find new oil reserves to replace declining ones, our production will continue to drop,” Ogunjobi said.

He noted that global energy dynamics are shifting rapidly, with many countries accelerating their transition to cleaner energy sources. While this trend creates opportunities for diversification, he said Nigeria must maximise the value of its hydrocarbon resources before global demand peaks.

“It is time for Nigeria to double down on exploration. The world is gradually moving away from fossil fuels, but hydrocarbons will still play a critical role in our development for decades to come. We cannot afford to be complacent while our oil reserves are depleting,” he added.

Ogunjobi further stressed that the government and industry players must prioritise investment in frontier basins such as the Chad, Anambra, Benue Trough, and Dahomey regions. These basins, he said, hold untapped potential that could transform Nigeria’s production outlook if properly developed.

He also highlighted that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) provides an enabling framework for investors, but its implementation must be strengthened to attract more exploration capital. “We have the legal structure, but we need to ensure that investors find Nigeria attractive. Stable fiscal terms, quick licensing, and transparent governance are critical,” Ogunjobi said.

According to him, exploration activities have been hindered by declining investments and the global energy transition, which has redirected capital toward renewable energy. He urged the Nigerian government to provide incentives such as tax holidays, exploration credits, and reduced royalties for companies that invest in new oil frontiers.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that Nigeria’s proven crude oil reserves currently stand at around 37 billion barrels, with about 206 trillion cubic feet of gas. However, experts warn that the reserves may decline unless new discoveries are made soon.

Ogunjobi stated that increasing exploration will not only secure Nigeria’s energy future but also generate employment, stimulate research, and enhance the capacity of indigenous companies. “We must empower Nigerian geoscientists and engineers with the tools, data, and funding necessary to unlock new discoveries,” he said.

He pointed out that the lack of adequate geological data and high exploration costs remain significant challenges. He called for the digitisation of Nigeria’s data repository and improved access for exploration companies. “Access to reliable subsurface data is the starting point for any successful exploration campaign,” he noted.

The NAPE president also urged the government to strengthen collaboration among stakeholders, including the NUPRC, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), and academia, to promote knowledge sharing and research-driven exploration.

He explained that the upcoming NAPE conference, scheduled to hold in November, would bring together industry leaders, policymakers, and technical experts to deliberate on strategies for boosting exploration and securing Nigeria’s place in the evolving global energy landscape.

“The conference will serve as a platform to discuss how Nigeria can balance the urgent need for exploration with global decarbonisation goals. We must be strategic in ensuring that our hydrocarbon development contributes to national prosperity while aligning with sustainability objectives,” Ogunjobi said.

Industry stakeholders share NAPE’s concern over the declining exploration trend. An oil and gas analyst, Dr. Akinwumi Fadeyi, stated that Nigeria risks losing its competitiveness if it fails to invest in new oil assets. “Other African countries such as Namibia, Angola, and Mozambique are making new discoveries and attracting global interest. Nigeria must not lag behind,” he said.

Fadeyi added that without new reserves, Nigeria’s revenue from oil exports — which account for over 80% of foreign exchange earnings — could weaken further, aggravating fiscal pressures. “Declining oil output means lower government revenue, reduced foreign exchange inflows, and potential budget deficits,” he said.

Meanwhile, the NUPRC has reiterated its commitment to driving exploration through its Frontier Exploration Fund, which allocates 30% of NNPC Limited’s profit from oil and gas production to frontier basin exploration. The Commission said the fund is already being deployed to accelerate drilling in underexplored regions.

However, industry operators believe more must be done to address security issues, oil theft, and vandalism, which have discouraged investments in Nigeria’s oil sector. “Investors want to see a safe, predictable environment before committing billions to exploration,” Ogunjobi noted.

He called for a holistic approach that includes fiscal incentives, improved infrastructure, and transparent policies to reposition Nigeria as a leading oil-producing nation in Africa. “If we fail to act now, we may lose our place as a dominant oil producer on the continent,” he warned.

As the world races toward renewable energy, NAPE insists that Nigeria’s best strategy lies in balancing oil exploration with the development of cleaner alternatives. “We must exploit what we have responsibly, using the proceeds to finance our energy transition,” Ogunjobi said.

The association expressed optimism that with concerted efforts by the government, investors, and professionals, Nigeria can increase its oil reserves, sustain production, and maintain its relevance in the global energy market for decades to come.