Who Will Win The Madrid Derby?

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid go into Saturday’s La Liga showdown at the Vicente Calderon with old and new tactical questions to resolve.

Diego Simeone’s side started out as superphysical scrappers who outworked and outfought their more talented opponents from across town. More recently, the balance has changed — especially as Zinedine Zidane’s men are more than comfortable to sit deep, defend and look to hit on the break.

According to Aitor Lagunas, editor of Panenka magazine and beIN Sports pundit, the main poser centers on who will want to hold possession and who will choose to take the game to their opponents.

“This is the big talking point,” Lagunas said.

“I believe we will see the ball shared between the two — maybe with Atletico just shading possession. Both will also be very keen to take advantage of any spaces and mistakes in the opposition defense. This would not be such a change of script — Atletico have been winning recent derbies by having more of the ball than Madrid.”

Jaime Rodriguez, who covers Real Madrid for El Mundo, said that Simeone has always shown Madrid a lot of respect with his approach, however, this time the Argentine might be more positive.

“I see an Atletico side more dominant than on other occasions. Madrid’s injuries in midfield give Simeone’s team a good opportunity to go for the game. But he always shows Madrid a lot of respect, even more than against Barcelona,” he said.

Atletico-leaning pundit Fran Guillen, meanwhile, expects the game to be very similar to the last time they met — the Champions League final in Milan that Real Madrid won on penalties following a tight match in which neither side wanted to overcommit.

“There is so much mutual respect between both teams that, unless something strange happens, it will be a tense and close game, very similar to what we saw in Milan after Sergio Ramos’ opening goal,” Guillen said.

“Nobody will want to make a mistake, and both sides are aware of what a slip can mean. It is curious that Zidane has not worried about sitting back if he believes it will work — for example, last season at the Camp Nou.

“So maybe Real Madrid will not want the ball, and it will have to be Atletico who take the game to them — as they did in their biggest game so far this season against Bayern Munich.”

Atletico, who beat Bayern 1-0 in the Champions League back in September, go into Saturday’s match against Madrid six points behind the leaders, and the onus will be on the home side to attack.

Simeone has moved playmaker Koke inside from the wing this season and regularly fielded two forwards and two wingers, although captain Gabi has admitted this has affected the team’s defensive solidity.

“The derby is going to show the level of faith that Simeone has in Koke’s reconversion,” Guillen says.

“Gabi said publicly after the defeat at Anoeta that the team lost out defensively with this new system, and I’m sure Simeone has noted the opinions of his captain. If Augusto Fernandez was fit, I would predict the double pivot, as is usual in the current Atleti. Maybe Saul Niguez could play there. Six goals conceded in the last four games merits a rethink.”

However, Lagunas reckons Simeone will stick with this season’s new, more open, team shape — even with the risks it entails.

“I would be surprised if Koke was taken out of the center, after the apparent ticking off which Simeone gave Gabi when he said the team became defensively weaker,” he says.

“Before Koke played on the wing — he drifted inside a lot — there were often three in middle, which made the team more cohesive, especially in transitions between attack and defense. Now Augusto is absent, and Tiago does not seem a starter, so I would guess it’ll be Koke in the middle and Antoine Griezmann and Kevin Gameiro up front.”

Zidane’s Madrid is unbeaten in all competitions since their last domestic match against Atletico back in February. However, recent months have brought embarrassing draws against opponents such as Eibar in La Liga and Legia Warsaw in the Champions League.

It has reopened the debate about whether the team is unbalanced by a requirement to always field the “BBC” of Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema.

Manel Bruna, who covers football in the Spanish capital for Catalan daily Mundo Deportivo, says injuries to key midfielders Toni Kroos and Casemiro give Zidane little room for maneuver.

“Zidane’s hand is forced by the injuries — especially Casemiro and Kroos,” Bruna says. “I see his usual 4-3-3 with the BBC, as that is non-negotiable for him. He has not changed this shape this season, and I doubt he will do it against Atletico, even with the injuries.”

Lagunas says Zidane is not a coach who often springs surprises, although Benzema’s niggling hamstring issue could offer a chance to add more solidity to the side.

“Zidane does not seem a coach who tends to spring tactical surprises, unlike Pep Guardiola or Simeone,” Lagunas said.

“My feeling is that once Benzema, Cristiano and Bale can walk, they will always start. The most important thing for Madrid is for the wide attackers — likely Ronaldo and Bale — to stop the Atletico full-backs pushing forward. The only surprise could be if Benzema is not able to play, and there could be a space for a player like Lucas Vazquez, who could come in, and Madrid could play something like a 4-4-2.”

Zidane’s big-name players have tended to show up on the biggest occasions, winning last season’s Clasico 2-1 at Barcelona, edging Atletico in Milan and also giving their best performance of 2016-17 so far in drawing September’s Champions League group game at Borussia Dortmund.

“I don’t believe Zidane will change his tactics,” said Rodriguez. “He will be prudent and look to counter if Atletico leave space behind.

“He has a great chance to sink Atletico’s title chances.”