The UK based Economist Magazine predicts that President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC will lose the 2019 presidential election to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP.
Recall that the Economist predicted that then candidate Buhari of the APC was going to win the 2015 presidential election.
The Economist also endorsed Buhari ahead of the 2015 elections and famously referred to then President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP as an “ineffectual buffoon”.
In a report published by its research unit which is known as the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the renowned magazine forecasts that “President, Muhammadu Buhari will lose power at the February 2019 elections. The next government will be led by Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, although his administration will be fragile”.
Analyzing how the election will play out, the EIU forecasts that “both candidates are from Northern Nigeria, where Mr. Buhari’s support base lies, presaging a fierce contest there. With the vote likely to be split in the north, Mr. Abubakar will find it easier to garner support from the country’s south, which has traditionally been a safe haven for the PDP. This gives Mr. Abubakar an edge, as does popular frustration over the rise in joblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Mr. Buhari’s watch, as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria.
“Nonetheless, strong incumbency advantages in Nigeria imply that it will be a very tight race. If Mr. Abubakar loses—a distinct downside risk to our forecast—there may be a rejection of the result by the PDP, which is convinced the election will be rigged. In this scenario, a state of national paralysis could arise with severe national security implications.”