Nigeria’s crude oil production slipped to an average of 1.39 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September 2025, signaling a decline in the country’s upstream output and renewing concerns about the resilience of Africa’s largest oil producer. According to the latest data from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the figure represents a drop from 1.43 mbpd recorded in August, underscoring the challenges confronting the nation’s oil sector despite ongoing government reforms.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) attributed the decline to operational disruptions caused by a three-day strike organized by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN). The industrial action, which disrupted production and export activities, coincided with maintenance shutdowns at key facilities, further compounding output losses. The commission reported that Nigeria’s total liquids output for September—including condensates—averaged about 1.58 mbpd, with 1.39 mbpd coming from crude oil and 191,000 bpd from condensates.
The September production figure represents a 3.09 percent decline from the previous month and falls short of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd, raising questions about the country’s ability to meet its production targets. Despite the monthly drop, a year-on-year comparison shows a marginal improvement, as September 2025 output was 1.6 percent higher than the same month in 2024.
Industry observers have pointed to multiple factors behind the production shortfall. The PENGASSAN strike, triggered by labour grievances over mass layoffs at the Dangote Refinery and the alleged replacement of Nigerian workers with foreign nationals, disrupted crude supply and export logistics across several terminals. The dispute led to temporary shutdowns in parts of the supply chain, including pipeline networks and loading facilities, reducing crude evacuation volumes and export schedules.
Beyond the strike, ongoing maintenance work at major fields and export terminals also contributed to the reduction in production. Industry sources confirmed that scheduled turnarounds at some strategic facilities coincided with the labour action, amplifying the impact on overall output. Analysts say the timing of these disruptions highlights the fragility of Nigeria’s production system, where even short-term stoppages can have outsized effects on national output.
The decline comes at a time when Nigeria has been striving to ramp up crude output to boost government revenue and foreign exchange earnings. President Bola Tinubu’s administration has emphasized revitalizing the oil and gas sector as a cornerstone of its economic recovery strategy. Efforts have included regulatory streamlining, new licensing rounds, and increased engagement with international oil companies to stimulate investment. However, September’s figures demonstrate that persistent structural and operational issues continue to constrain growth.
Experts warn that the dip in production could have ripple effects on Nigeria’s economy. Oil remains the nation’s primary source of export earnings and government revenue. A sustained fall in output could widen fiscal deficits, strain foreign reserves, and apply additional pressure on the naira. The country’s budget projections for 2025 were premised on higher production levels, and any prolonged underperformance could force a review of fiscal assumptions.
Meanwhile, downstream markets have also felt the impact of the decline. Petrol marketers in several states have begun adjusting pump prices upward, citing tighter supply conditions and rising distribution costs. In Abuja and Lagos, pump prices reportedly climbed above ₦850 per litre, reflecting broader supply chain pressures and foreign exchange constraints that have made fuel importation costlier.
Analysts say the situation underscores the interconnectedness of Nigeria’s oil ecosystem—where upstream disruptions quickly translate into downstream consequences. They also warn that the country risks missing out on potential benefits from the recent rebound in global oil prices if production constraints persist.
The NUPRC has pledged to work closely with operators, labour unions, and stakeholders to stabilize output in the coming months. The agency said it would intensify monitoring efforts, ensure adherence to maintenance schedules, and mediate ongoing disputes to avoid further industrial disruptions. It also reaffirmed its commitment to tackling issues of crude theft and vandalism, which have long plagued the sector.
Despite these assurances, concerns remain about Nigeria’s ability to achieve sustainable production stability. Chronic infrastructure decay, insecurity in the Niger Delta, and pipeline vandalism continue to threaten output consistency. Industry experts note that without significant investment in modern infrastructure, improved surveillance, and stronger collaboration among stakeholders, periodic disruptions could remain a recurring challenge.
The latest production figures serve as a reminder that Nigeria’s oil sector remains vulnerable to both internal and external shocks. While the government’s reform agenda has created optimism about long-term recovery, achieving consistent output growth will depend on addressing the root causes of operational volatility.
As the country enters the final quarter of 2025, attention will turn to whether production can rebound before year-end. The government’s immediate priority is to resolve industrial disputes, enhance facility uptime, and ensure stability across the value chain. For now, however, the drop to 1.39 million barrels per day stands as a stark signal that Nigeria’s oil recovery journey remains a work in progress.
Support InfoStride News' Credible Journalism: Only credible journalism can guarantee a fair, accountable and transparent society, including democracy and government. It involves a lot of efforts and money. We need your support. Click here to Donate