Dangote Eyes Global Fertiliser Export Supremacy with Massive Expansion Plans

Dangote Industries Limited is aggressively positioning itself at the forefront of the global fertiliser market, aiming to transform Africa from a net importer of fertilisers into a self-sufficient exporter within the next 40 months. Group Chairman Aliko Dangote recently revealed that, under this plan, his $2.5 billion urea fertiliser plant near Lagos will more than double capacity from its current 3 million metric tonnes annually, targeting leadership beyond traditional giants in the space.

Speaking at a recent event in Abuja, Dangote declared that the continent will no longer depend on imported fertiliser by mid-2028, citing infrastructure upgrades, export corridors, and strong foreign demand as major enablers of his objective. He aims for his urea complex to become the world’s largest, surpassing producers in the Middle East and Asia.

Dangote also emphasised the planned boost in export volumes. The group is setting a target of exporting up to 16,000 tonnes of fertiliser daily within the next two years, which would translate to roughly $6.5 million to $7 million in daily revenue. Such gains are expected to bolster Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings significantly and reduce the economic strain of reliance on imports.

To support the expansion, Dangote is pursuing strategic partnerships and investments in factory scale, logistics, and shipping. Discussions with the Nigerian Ports Authority suggest that fertiliser export operations will involve loading multiple vessels annually, a scale not witnessed before in Nigeria’s ports. The plan also includes exporting additional industrial products such as cement, polypropylene, and refined petroleum by leveraging Dangote’s petrochemical and refinery arm.

Another key facet of Dangote’s strategy is listing the fertiliser business on the Nigerian Exchange. This move is intended to attract both local and international investment, improve transparency, and send a clear signal to markets about the seriousness of the enterprise. The listing is also expected to align with Dangote’s revenue and dividend projections, which, under the expanded exports, are anticipated to rise sharply.

However, experts warn that the path to global leadership in fertiliser exports is not without obstacles. Infrastructure bottlenecks—especially in port capacity, shipping, and bulk handling facilities—are seen as major concerns. Transport delays and logistics inefficiencies risk eroding margins or delaying the delivery timelines for export cargos. Additionally, cost overruns and foreign exchange volatility remain potential headwinds, given the scale of investment required.

Despite these challenges, Dangote’s recent export performance supports confidence in his vision. Nigeria’s non-oil export value rose in the first half of 2025, driven in part by strong demand for urea and fertiliser products. Firms like Dangote Fertiliser Ltd and Indorama Eleme have played significant roles in this growth trajectory. In parallel, government policy has shown increasing support for manufacturing and export diversification. The marine and blue economy, combined with customs and port reforms, are being cited as core enablers for Dangote’s export expansion plans.

For agriculture across Africa, the implications are significant. Greater fertiliser availability at competitive prices could reduce input costs for farmers, boost productivity, and enhance food security. Countries currently highly reliant on fertiliser imports stand to benefit from lower supply chain risks and improved timelines for access to critical inputs. Dangote’s ambition aligns with broader continental goals, including increasing local industrialisation, reducing foreign exchange leakage from imports, and fostering self-reliance in agricultural inputs.

In summary, Dangote’s push for fertiliser export leadership combines capacity expansion, export scale-up, financial market engagement, and infrastructural upgrades. If successful, his plan could reshape Africa’s agricultural input landscape—turning Nigeria from a major importer into a dominant global player. The next 40 months are likely to test the strength and resilience of this strategy amid infrastructural, logistical, and economic pressures, but so far, the indicators are aligning in favour of a bold transformation.