Nigeria’s E-commerce Market Projected to Surpass $16 Billion by 2030 – LBS

Nigeria’s e-commerce market is on track to exceed $16 billion by 2030, according to new projections by the Lagos Business School (LBS). The forecast underscores the rapid growth of the digital economy in Africa’s largest market, buoyed by increased internet penetration, mobile adoption, a youthful population, and rising confidence in online transactions.

The report highlighted that the surge in e-commerce is being driven by structural changes in consumer behavior, as more Nigerians embrace online shopping for convenience, affordability, and variety. With over 220 million people and an expanding middle class, Nigeria is regarded as one of the most attractive e-commerce markets in Africa. Experts at LBS believe that the sector, currently valued at around $7 billion, could more than double in the next five years if enabling policies and infrastructure improvements are sustained.

According to LBS, the rise of online marketplaces such as Jumia, Konga, and other emerging platforms has fueled digital retail adoption across key sectors like electronics, fashion, groceries, and consumer goods. These companies have also been investing heavily in logistics and payment solutions to address one of the sector’s biggest challenges: last-mile delivery. With fintech innovations making digital payments more seamless, more Nigerians are overcoming their initial skepticism about online transactions.

The COVID-19 pandemic, the report noted, played a catalytic role in accelerating e-commerce adoption, as restrictions forced both businesses and consumers to shift toward digital platforms. While physical retail has since recovered, online shopping has maintained its momentum, with more brick-and-mortar businesses creating hybrid models to meet changing consumer expectations.

Despite the optimism, the LBS report cautioned that several hurdles must be addressed to achieve the $16 billion target. Infrastructure deficits, such as poor road networks and erratic power supply, continue to impede logistics efficiency. Additionally, inconsistent government policies, multiple taxation, and regulatory uncertainties pose risks to sustained growth in the sector.

The report also raised concerns about digital fraud, which remains one of the biggest threats to e-commerce in Nigeria. Although payment service providers and fintech firms have introduced stronger security systems, cybercrime has continued to undermine consumer trust. LBS recommended that government agencies, banks, and private sector stakeholders collaborate more closely to strengthen cybersecurity frameworks and consumer protection mechanisms.

Industry stakeholders argue that the potential of Nigeria’s e-commerce market extends beyond retail. With the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) gradually gaining traction, Nigerian e-commerce platforms have an opportunity to tap into cross-border trade and position themselves as gateways to Africa’s digital economy. However, this will require major improvements in payment interoperability, customs efficiency, and cross-border logistics.

Analysts believe that if Nigeria harnesses its youthful demographic—70 percent of the population is under the age of 30—the country could see an unprecedented boom in online trade. Young Nigerians are not only the largest consumers of digital platforms but are also driving innovation by creating homegrown e-commerce startups that address local market needs. This entrepreneurial energy, coupled with foreign investment, could position Nigeria as the continent’s digital commerce leader.

Government support will be critical in realizing this potential. Experts have urged authorities to harmonize regulations, support digital infrastructure development, and create incentives for both local and foreign investors in the e-commerce space. Policies that promote broadband penetration, mobile internet affordability, and fintech expansion will directly boost online retail activity and help Nigeria close the digital divide.

Another major factor that could accelerate growth is the rapid expansion of mobile money and alternative digital payment systems. With millions of Nigerians still excluded from traditional banking, mobile wallets and fintech services have created new entry points for participation in the digital economy. By 2030, experts predict that mobile-first commerce will dominate the e-commerce landscape, as more rural and semi-urban populations gain access to affordable internet and smartphones.

Logistics and warehousing capacity are also expected to expand as private sector players and startups invest in technology-driven solutions like drone delivery, smart warehouses, and real-time tracking systems. These innovations are projected to significantly cut delivery times, lower costs, and boost consumer satisfaction.

LBS emphasized that while the target of $16 billion may appear ambitious, it is achievable with the right mix of innovation, policy support, and investment. The report concluded that e-commerce could become a major contributor to Nigeria’s GDP by the end of the decade, creating millions of jobs and positioning the country as a digital powerhouse in Africa.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s e-commerce story is one of both opportunity and challenge. The sector’s projected trajectory highlights the growing importance of digital transformation in shaping the nation’s economic future. If the momentum is sustained, Nigeria could not only meet but possibly surpass the $16 billion projection, cementing its position as one of the fastest-growing digital markets in the world.