There was an inevitability about this tie being drawn out: the pair have contested two finals and a quarterfinal in the last three seasons, so perhaps it was about time this gap was filled. At least it will make for some variety in the Cardiff showpiece and Atletico will hope it is their turn, after losing all of the recent matchups, to hold sway in a Madrid derby. They can feel encouraged by the 1-1 draw they eked out at the Bernabeu in a La Liga match two weekends ago, Antoine Griezmann equalising late on, even if a 3-0 home reverse in November augurs rather less well. Can Atleti coach Diego Simeone vault a hurdle that has proved just too high so far?
It would be a fantastic story and just reward for the progress of a side that develops year on year while retaining the doggedness that is Simeone’s hallmark. Atletico have a chance against the champions and 11-time winners: clean sheets are currently rare commodities at the Bernabeu and Real have not kept a single one in the Champions League all season. Zinedine Zidane’s side have rode their luck at times, never more so than in a quarterfinal second leg against Bayern Munich that saw them on the rack before controversial red card and offside decisions swing the tie in their favour.
Real, with Cristiano Ronaldo as predatory as ever even some of the old explosiveness has gone, will capitalise on the smallest advantage so the key for Atletico will be discipline. If they can avoid falling into too many of the niggly pitfalls that derby days harbour, their city rivals are vulnerable — and the tie could end up being finely poised.
Either way, it will be loaded with emotion. Atletico’s Estadio Vicente Calderon will now host one last derby, the penultimate game Atletico play there before leaving at the end of this season, and it is a chance to sign off on perhaps the most positive note of all. Assuming Atletico are firmly in the tie after the first leg, the atmosphere at their home stadium will be electric — and whoever masters it most effectively may well go through.
Prediction: This time Atletico get it right, riding the wave of emotion and expectation to capitalise on Real’s defensive shakiness and edge through.
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