Nigeria Aims High: Set to Import 2.1 Million Tons of Rice, Securing Top Global Buyer Spot by 2024 – USDA

Nigeria is anticipated to become the top global rice importer in 2024, importing an estimated 2.1 million metric tons, as indicated by the most recent Rice Outlook report released by the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This projection positions Nigeria among the major players in the global rice trade, contributing to an expected total global rice trade volume of approximately 52.85 million tons (milled basis) by 2024.

According to the report, the dynamics of global rice trade are anticipated to undergo shifts, with increased exports expected from countries such as Brazil and South Korea, while Burkina Faso, Indonesia, and Nigeria are predicted to lead in imports. This information offers a comprehensive overview of the evolving landscape of international rice trade.

The report’s findings indicate a notable weakening of rice production in Nigeria, along with seven other nations. The factors contributing to this decline include diet diversification and declining, aging populations in Japan and South Korea, as well as weaker crops projected for Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mali, Nigeria, Turkey, and Uzbekistan in the 2023/24 period. Despite these challenges, global rice production is expected to reach a record 517.8 million tons (milled basis) in 2023/24, albeit with a decrease of 340,000 tons from the previous month’s forecast.

Within this global context, Nigeria is expected to contribute approximately 5.23 million tons to the overall rice production figure. However, the report highlights the country’s unique position as the leading rice importer in 2024. Notably, Nigeria’s projected import volume of 2.1 million metric tons surpasses that of other major importers, with Indonesia following closely with a projection of 2 million metric tons and Brazil with a forecast of 900,000 metric tons.

The report sheds light on the rationale behind the upward revision of Nigeria’s import forecast by 100,000 metric tons from the earlier October projection. It attributes this adjustment to the unexpectedly high demand for imported rice, driven by elevated prices for domestic rice and concerns related to quality.

An additional factor influencing the dynamics of rice trade in Nigeria is the recent decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to lift foreign exchange restrictions on rice and 42 other items that had been in place for eight years. This policy shift is anticipated to facilitate increased imports of rice and other commodities into the country. The removal of these restrictions has elicited mixed reactions, with some farmers expressing support for the move, asserting that it breaks the monopoly held by local millers in the processing and marketing of grains.

It is essential to note that prior to the lifting of the forex ban, there appeared to be a decline in rice imports, as indicated by data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA), revealing a substantial decrease of 98.4% between the first seven months of 2022 and the corresponding period in 2021. However, it is crucial to consider the possibility of unofficial imports through smuggling, as highlighted by recent actions of the Nigeria Customs Service, which seized 13 trailer loads of foreign parboiled rice and other items.

In summary, Nigeria’s prominence as a key player in the global rice trade is underscored by its projected position as the leading rice importer in 2024. The anticipated import volume, coupled with shifts in global trade dynamics and recent policy changes, presents a multifaceted scenario that warrants close observation as stakeholders navigate the evolving landscape of the rice market. Infostride News remains committed to providing timely and insightful coverage of developments in the agricultural sector and international trade, offering readers a comprehensive understanding of the factors shaping Nigeria’s role in the global rice trade.