Report says Nigeria produced 454 million barrels of oil in the first nine months

Nigeria’s crude oil production has reached 454 million barrels within the first nine months of 2025, according to a new report by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The report highlights a steady recovery in output following years of disruptions caused by oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and operational inefficiencies across key producing regions.

Data from the NUPRC show that the country’s average daily production during the period stood at approximately 1.67 million barrels per day (mbpd), including condensates. This marks a moderate improvement compared to the same period in 2024, when production averaged around 1.45 mbpd. The growth reflects ongoing efforts by the Federal Government and industry stakeholders to stabilize output and restore investor confidence in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

According to the report, the increased production was largely driven by improved security in the Niger Delta, enhanced monitoring of crude oil pipelines, and the resumption of operations at several key oil terminals. The rehabilitation of critical infrastructure and the deployment of advanced surveillance technology have also contributed to curbing illegal bunkering and crude losses.

The NUPRC noted that companies such as Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), Chevron Nigeria Limited, and TotalEnergies recorded higher production levels during the period, while indigenous firms like Seplat Energy and Aiteo Eastern Exploration and Production also made notable contributions.

Commenting on the development, NUPRC Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, said the improved output is evidence of Nigeria’s commitment to meeting its OPEC+ production targets and leveraging its oil resources for sustainable growth. He explained that the government’s renewed engagement with host communities, along with the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), has fostered a more stable operating environment.

“We have witnessed measurable progress in the past nine months due to enhanced collaboration between the government, operators, and security agencies. Our target is to sustain production levels above 1.7 million barrels per day and progressively move toward 2.0 mbpd by 2026,” Komolafe stated.

He also reaffirmed that the Commission will continue to enforce compliance with environmental, operational, and reporting standards across the upstream value chain, ensuring that oil production growth is achieved sustainably and transparently.

The report further revealed that Nigeria earned an estimated $45.8 billion in oil export revenue from January to September 2025, buoyed by relatively stable global crude prices, which averaged around $86 per barrel during the period. However, the Commission warned that revenue gains could be undermined if production challenges resurface or if oil prices experience a significant downturn.

Industry analysts believe that the improved performance signals a gradual turnaround in Nigeria’s petroleum sector, which has struggled with declining investment and production shortfalls in recent years. According to energy analyst Dr. Idayat Hassan, the recovery reflects stronger coordination between regulators and operators, as well as the positive impact of recent reforms under the PIA.

“While the numbers are encouraging, sustaining this momentum will require continuous investment in infrastructure and technology. The government must also ensure that revenue from oil exports is prudently managed to support economic diversification,” Hassan said.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recently projected that Nigeria’s oil output could rise further in 2026 as new projects come on stream, particularly from deepwater fields operated by international oil companies. However, the group emphasized the need for Nigeria to maintain a balance between production growth and compliance with OPEC’s overall output quotas.

Meanwhile, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) has reaffirmed its commitment to increasing the country’s oil and gas output through strategic investments and partnerships. NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, said ongoing projects such as the Bonga North deepwater development, Kolmani Integrated Project, and Dangote Refinery crude supply framework will further boost Nigeria’s production and domestic refining capacity.

Kyari added that the company is working closely with security agencies to ensure continuous monitoring of critical pipelines and export terminals to prevent sabotage and theft. “We have made significant progress in securing our assets and ensuring that every barrel produced is accounted for,” he noted.

Despite the gains, the NUPRC report also identified lingering challenges, including aging infrastructure, funding constraints for indigenous operators, and delays in licensing new marginal fields. It urged the government to accelerate investment in pipeline upgrades, incentivize exploration in frontier basins, and provide financial support mechanisms to attract private capital.

Economic experts have stressed that while oil remains a major revenue earner, Nigeria must use the recent output gains to strengthen its fiscal buffers and invest in alternative sectors such as renewable energy, manufacturing, and agriculture.

As the country looks toward the final quarter of the year, stakeholders remain optimistic that with continued reforms, enhanced governance, and better stakeholder engagement, Nigeria could achieve and sustain its production target of 2 million barrels per day in the near future.

For now, the report serves as a positive indicator of recovery in Nigeria’s oil sector — a crucial step in stabilizing the economy, boosting foreign exchange reserves, and reinforcing the nation’s position as one of Africa’s leading energy producers.