Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production dropped to 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September 2025, marking one of the lowest output levels in recent months, as industrial action by oil workers and operational disruptions hit production across key oilfields.According to data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country’s total oil output declined sharply from 1.67 mbpd in August, representing a shortfall of about 170,000 barrels per day. The drop has raised renewed concerns over Nigeria’s ability to meet its production targets under the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota and its broader revenue projections for the year.
Sources within the petroleum industry attributed the decline largely to the strike by members of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which temporarily halted operations in some oil terminals and offshore platforms. The workers had embarked on industrial action over unpaid allowances, welfare issues, and alleged breaches of labor agreements by some operators in the upstream sector.
The strike, which lasted several days, reportedly disrupted crude lifting operations at several terminals, including Bonny, Forcados, and Brass, leading to a backlog in export schedules and delays in tanker movements. Several oil companies were also forced to temporarily shut down production wells to prevent storage overflow.
Industry observers said the disruption came at a particularly sensitive time, as the government has been working to stabilize output following months of recovery efforts. “This drop in production could not have come at a worse time,” said Dr. Bala Zaka, an oil and gas analyst. “Nigeria had just begun to record modest gains in production after a long period of underperformance due to pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and underinvestment. The strike action has now reversed some of that progress.”
The NUPRC report revealed that while crude oil accounted for 1.25 mbpd, condensate production contributed around 250,000 barrels per day in September. This represents a decline across both streams compared to August figures, when condensate output stood closer to 300,000 barrels daily.
Officials at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) confirmed that the strike had affected operations but said production was gradually recovering following the resolution of the industrial dispute. “We have begun restoring output across most of the affected platforms,” an NNPC source stated. “The impact was significant, but with workers returning and crude evacuation resuming, we expect October’s figures to show improvement.”
Beyond the strike, other operational issues also contributed to the decline. Industry insiders cited persistent pipeline vandalism and crude theft, especially in the Niger Delta, as ongoing threats to stable production. Despite recent government interventions, including increased military surveillance and community engagement initiatives, illegal tapping points continue to plague key pipelines such as the Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP) and the Nembe Creek Trunk Line (NCTL).
Additionally, some international oil companies (IOCs) reportedly scaled down production due to technical maintenance and scheduled shutdowns. “Many operators use this period for maintenance work before year-end operations ramp up,” said an upstream manager with a major IOC. “However, the strike compounded the challenge by extending downtime across several facilities.”
The impact of reduced oil output extends beyond production figures—it also affects government revenue. Nigeria’s 2025 budget was benchmarked on an oil output projection of 1.78 mbpd at an average price of $78 per barrel. The shortfall in September means the country could face a dip in expected foreign exchange earnings, further straining fiscal operations already pressured by inflation and high debt servicing.
Analysts have warned that unless production stabilizes, Nigeria’s ability to fund critical projects and sustain macroeconomic reforms could be jeopardized. “Oil remains the backbone of our foreign exchange earnings,” said Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). “When output falls below projections, it triggers a ripple effect across revenue collection, debt sustainability, and the naira’s stability.”
Meanwhile, PENGASSAN, in a statement, said the strike was “a last resort” after failed negotiations with some upstream operators. The union’s President, Festus Osifo, accused some companies of neglecting workers’ welfare and violating local content laws. “Our members are patriotic, but we cannot continue to work under unfair and unsafe conditions. We had to take a stand to protect our rights,” he said.
The Federal Government has since intervened to mediate between the union and affected companies. Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, confirmed that the strike had been suspended following an agreement on key demands. “We have engaged with both parties, and I can assure Nigerians that production is being restored gradually. The government remains committed to addressing labor issues to avoid future disruptions,” he stated.
In response to the production decline, the NUPRC has pledged to intensify monitoring and collaboration with industry stakeholders to ensure output recovery. “We are focused on achieving sustainable growth in production,” said NUPRC Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe. “The commission will continue to enforce compliance with operational standards and strengthen oversight to prevent unnecessary disruptions.”
Energy experts believe the incident underscores the need for structural reforms within the oil sector, particularly in labor relations, asset security, and infrastructure maintenance. They also call for accelerated investments in new oilfields and gas development to diversify output sources.
Despite the setback, optimism remains that Nigeria’s production will rebound in the coming months, especially as new projects from Seplat Energy, Shell, and Nigerian independent producers come onstream. However, achieving consistency will require stability in both labor and operational environments.
For now, the September decline serves as a reminder of how fragile Nigeria’s oil industry remains, with labor disputes, insecurity, and technical issues capable of undermining national output. With global oil prices hovering around $86 per barrel, maintaining stable production remains vital to Nigeria’s fiscal stability and economic recovery.
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