Nigeria Records Lowest Crude Oil Losses in 16 Years, Says NUPRC

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced that the country’s crude oil losses have dropped to their lowest level in 16 years, with daily losses now averaging just 9,600 barrels per day. The milestone represents a significant breakthrough in efforts to curb theft, sabotage, and pipeline vandalism, issues that have historically plagued Nigeria’s oil industry and undermined government revenue.

According to the commission, the decline is the result of a combination of government interventions, improved surveillance technology, stricter regulatory enforcement, and enhanced collaboration with host communities. It marks a sharp contrast to the situation in recent years when Nigeria was losing as much as 200,000 barrels per day to theft and leakages—contributing to revenue shortfalls, budget deficits, and missed production targets.

Industry observers say this development could not have come at a better time. Global crude oil markets are volatile, and Nigeria, as Africa’s largest oil producer, has been under pressure to stabilise output in order to meet Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quotas and maximise its foreign exchange earnings. The reported reduction in daily losses signals progress towards restoring investor confidence in the sector and improving Nigeria’s fiscal stability.

The NUPRC credited a series of reforms for the improved performance. One of the key measures has been the integration of advanced monitoring systems on critical pipeline networks. These include real-time tracking technologies and the deployment of drones to oversee oil infrastructure in high-risk areas. Additionally, the government has deepened partnerships with security agencies and private contractors, resulting in faster responses to breaches and more effective deterrence of illegal bunkering activities.

Another factor has been the strengthening of host community engagement through the Host Community Development Trust provisions under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). By ensuring local communities directly benefit from oil production activities, the government has been able to reduce grievances that often led to sabotage or collaboration with oil thieves. Community buy-in has been cited as a game-changer in reducing attacks on oil assets in the Niger Delta.

The commission also highlighted recent court-backed enforcement measures that have empowered regulators to clamp down on unlicensed operators. Companies that fail to adhere to strict reporting standards on metering, production, and pipeline integrity now face sanctions, while those who adopt best practices are incentivised with operational approvals. This mix of carrots and sticks, officials say, has created a more disciplined oil industry environment.

For the federal government, the reduction in crude oil losses could translate into substantial gains. At current oil prices, a daily saving of nearly 200,000 barrels compared to peak loss years could mean billions of dollars annually in additional revenues. This is particularly crucial at a time when Nigeria is grappling with foreign exchange shortages, debt servicing pressures, and rising social spending commitments.

Energy analysts, however, warn that the battle is not yet over. While the reported 9,600 barrels per day figure is historic, oil theft remains an entrenched challenge with deep economic and political roots. Sophisticated networks, often involving local and international actors, still pose risks to Nigeria’s oil installations. Moreover, ageing infrastructure continues to suffer from leaks and technical failures, which also contribute to production losses.

The progress has nonetheless been applauded by stakeholders. International oil companies (IOCs) and indigenous operators alike have welcomed the development, noting that improved security and accountability could spur new investments in upstream projects. Investors had previously been wary of committing capital due to the high levels of uncertainty and risk in Nigeria’s oil corridors.

Civil society organisations and transparency advocates have also urged the government to maintain momentum, stressing the importance of sustaining reforms to avoid a relapse. They argue that long-term success depends not only on technical fixes but also on governance reforms, including transparency in oil revenue management and accountability in security expenditures.

The commission reaffirmed its commitment to working closely with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd), security agencies, and international partners to drive losses even lower in the coming years. It expressed confidence that if current strategies are sustained, Nigeria could effectively eliminate large-scale crude oil theft and pipeline sabotage by the end of the decade.

The drop in crude oil losses comes at a time when the government is pushing to increase national oil output to 2 million barrels per day, up from recent averages of 1.3 to 1.5 million barrels. Achieving this goal, officials argue, will not only stabilise Nigeria’s fiscal base but also strengthen its role as a key player in global energy markets.

With daily crude oil losses at their lowest since 2009, Nigeria is sending a strong signal that it is regaining control of its oil industry. For many, the milestone represents both a major economic relief and a step toward restoring the country’s reputation as a dependable oil producer.