Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Falls by 10% in Q3 2025 – NBS

Nigeria’s trade surplus declined by 10 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest foreign trade statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The drop reflects a combination of weaker export earnings and sustained import demand, underscoring ongoing structural challenges in the country’s external trade performance.

Data from the NBS showed that while Nigeria maintained a positive trade balance during the period, the margin narrowed compared to the previous quarter. The bureau attributed the contraction largely to fluctuations in crude oil exports, which remain Nigeria’s dominant source of foreign exchange earnings.

Crude oil and related petroleum products continued to account for the bulk of export receipts in Q3 2025. However, lower average export volumes and price pressures in the global oil market weighed on overall export value. Analysts note that production disruptions, operational challenges and compliance with output quotas affected Nigeria’s export capacity during the quarter.

Non-oil exports recorded modest growth, driven by agricultural commodities, solid minerals and manufactured goods. Despite the improvement, the NBS noted that non-oil exports were not sufficient to offset the decline in oil export earnings. This imbalance once again highlighted Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil for trade performance.

On the import side, total imports remained elevated, reflecting strong demand for refined petroleum products, machinery, transport equipment, food items and industrial raw materials. The NBS data indicated that fuel imports continued to exert pressure on the trade balance, despite increased domestic refining capacity from private operators.

The sustained import bill was also linked to currency adjustments and rising domestic costs. Importers reportedly accelerated purchases to hedge against exchange rate volatility and inflationary pressures, contributing to higher import values during the quarter.

According to the NBS, Asia remained Nigeria’s largest trading partner, accounting for a significant share of both imports and exports. Europe followed closely, while trade with the Americas and Africa also recorded notable volumes. China, India, the Netherlands and the United States were among Nigeria’s key trading partners during the period.

Trade within Africa increased moderately, supported by the gradual implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area. However, analysts say intra-African trade still represents a relatively small share of Nigeria’s total trade, due to infrastructure gaps, logistics constraints and limited export diversification.

Economists have described the 10 per cent dip in trade surplus as a warning signal, particularly amid ongoing economic reforms. While acknowledging improvements in trade transparency and reporting, analysts argue that Nigeria must accelerate efforts to diversify exports and reduce import dependence.

The NBS report also highlighted sectoral trends, showing that agricultural exports such as cocoa, sesame seeds and cashew nuts performed better than in previous quarters. Solid minerals, including limestone and metal ores, also contributed to export earnings, though volumes remained modest.

Manufactured exports recorded marginal gains, supported by products such as cement, processed foods and basic consumer goods. However, manufacturers continue to face challenges including high energy costs, limited access to foreign exchange and logistics inefficiencies, which constrain competitiveness.

On the import side, machinery and transport equipment accounted for a large portion of total imports, reflecting ongoing investments in infrastructure, manufacturing and energy projects. Imports of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies also remained significant, driven by healthcare demand.

The NBS noted that the trade surplus decline occurred despite policy efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market and boost non-oil exports. Authorities have introduced incentives aimed at supporting exporters, improving port efficiency and reducing bureaucratic bottlenecks, but results have been gradual.

Financial analysts say exchange rate adjustments during the period influenced trade dynamics. While a more market-reflective exchange rate improved transparency, it also increased import costs, contributing to higher import values in naira terms.

The decline in trade surplus has implications for Nigeria’s external reserves and balance of payments. A narrower surplus reduces the buffer available to support foreign exchange reserves, especially in periods of lower oil revenue.

Manufacturers and exporters have called for stronger policy coordination to address structural issues affecting trade. They argue that investments in power, transport infrastructure and export financing are critical to improving Nigeria’s trade competitiveness.

Experts also stress the need for value addition in export products. Rather than exporting raw commodities, Nigeria could improve trade earnings by processing agricultural and mineral resources locally, thereby capturing higher value in global markets.

The NBS emphasised that the trade surplus remains positive, indicating that exports still exceed imports overall. However, the bureau cautioned that sustained declines could pose risks if not addressed through diversification and productivity improvements.

Looking ahead, analysts expect trade performance in subsequent quarters to depend largely on global oil market trends, domestic production levels and the pace of non-oil export growth. Continued reforms in customs operations, port management and trade facilitation are also expected to influence outcomes.

As Nigeria seeks to strengthen economic resilience, the Q3 2025 trade figures underscore the urgency of reducing reliance on crude oil and building a more balanced and diversified export base. The NBS said addressing these challenges remains critical to sustaining a healthy trade balance and supporting long-term economic growth.