Osun 2026: Odds against Governor Adeleke’s Reelection

The 2026 Osun governorship race is unfolding with dramatic intensity. The path ahead, winding and undulating, is full of revealing shocks with little to no “absorber” for the political elite.

The political dynamics have already shifted significantly, seeing an incumbent chief executive leave his original political platform to seek refuge in another party, regarded by many as a lesser entity.

In what appears to be a “mad rush,” we have watched other political gladiators switch parties. It first appeared as a political melodrama in which the “dancing governor” was captured dancing to an unknown tune when he crossed over to the Accord Party (A).

In the background, fears are being expressed about the All Progressives Congress (APC) ‘s intent to compromise the upcoming gubernatorial elections in the state. We have seen issues related to local government conflicts and the resulting allocations. Furthermore, insinuations and speculations suggest that the incumbent Federal Government views the next election as a “do-or-die” affair.

Misplaced as these expressed fears may appear, Governor Ademola Adeleke is guilty of several ‘sins’ that have made him culpable and are likely to cost him a second term as the state’s helmsman. First and foremost, it is unfortunate that Adeleke ignored the voices of reason warning against his “Edenisation” policy as he ran his administration.

Adeleke went ahead with local government elections even when all legal and constitutional indications should have prohibited him. As a result, for almost a year, local government operations and activities in the state were crippled. In addition, many lives were lost in the ensuing crises.

The local government imbroglio, coupled with the crippling of that grassroots tier of government, is a major loss for the Accord Party and Adeleke in the next governorship contest. The APC and its candidate will likely enjoy greater sympathy and support from the people, as their structures remain firmly entrenched at this third tier of governance. Their achievements in local office work are an added advantage.

As governor of his previous political party, Adeleke has been widely accused of unfair political dealings, high-handedness, and failure to honour political agreements. With the wave of defections and drifting away from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the spurning of his newfound political platform, a clean bill of health is not guaranteed for the governor in the next political contest.

While it is true that hordes of political supporters accompanied him to the new platform, many more drifted away into the APC and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The governor is savvy, to be sure; he could not have done otherwise, given the events leading up to his defection. However, he did not effectively consolidate his old political associates and supporters.

In all fairness, Adeleke may enjoy, to some extent, support and sympathy, and that is perhaps all that is left for him in the upcoming contest. Regarding the visible narratives of race, things may not fare as well for him. Emerging facts prove that Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, popularly known as AMBO, will outmatch him even in the aspects of public compassion. The way things stand, Oyebamiji is the candidate to beat for the soul of Osun on August 15. If nothing else does, the figures in the current waves of defection are in AMBO’s favour. Aside from this, other indices point to his imminent victory in the upcoming poll.

Between mid-2025 and February this year, no fewer than five members of the National Assembly elected on the PDP platform in the state had officially defected to the APC. They included: Francis Fadahunsi (Osun East), Olubiyi Fadeyi (Osun Central), Omirin Olusanya (Ijesa South Federal Constituency), Wole Oke (Ijesa North Federal Constituency), and Taofeek Ajilesoro (Ife Central Federal Constituency). One would have expected these defectors to move into the Accord Party in support of the governor, but they chose otherwise. The weight of these defections should not be undermined.

Yes, the Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Adewale Egbedun, along with 24 other lawmakers, defected from the PDP to the Accord Party. Sadly, however, for the Accord Party camp in Osogbo, a besetting setback became its lot after Kikelomo Matuwo announced her resignation from the party.

Citing frustration with internal affairs, Matuwo expressed disappointment over the neglect of loyal party members and alleged abuse of power. In a move that surprised many, she also withdrew her son from his role as a Special Assistant under the state government, signalling a complete departure from the current structure.

In a fresh setback for the ‘’Thumb-up” in Osun, a new group of loyalists aligned with Adeleke recently defected to the APC in Odo-Otin Local Government. The defectors were formally received at the Okuku Town Hall by APC stakeholders. Francis Oluwadamilare Eniade, a prominent APC chieftain, played a key role in welcoming these members. This marks the second batch of defectors Eniade has received in recent weeks, underscoring his growing influence in mobilising support for the APC in Odo-Otin.

These are solid instances. While we could go on, the truth is that when juxtaposed with the torrent of defections, the PDP and the Accord Party are on the losing side. This puts Governor Adeleke at a significant disadvantage. AMBO is the candidate the Osun electorate yearns for and is prepared to vote for en masse.

The defection figures are mostly in favour of the APC and its candidate in the August 2026 race. It is a farce to suggest the party and its flag-bearer will have to depend on “federal might” in whatever form to clinch victory. The APC in the state has consolidated its ranks so effectively that it is attracting many more who yearn for progress and accelerated development.

The party’s boat-rocking, net-cracking achievements during its twelve years in the saddle in the state serve as a nostalgic reminder that a vibrant arrowhead like Bola Oyebamiji is the right person to bring into office so that the good work can continue. Pundits, observers and residents wait with bated breath as political events unfold.

August 15, 2026, is not a long way off.

Oyekanmi lives in Ikirun, Osun State.