Man City Set For Must-Win Clash Against Watford

Given how Manchester City have been playing recently, the last thing they’ll want is a visit from a battling Watford side buoyed on by summer signing Stefano Okaka, who just scored for the first time in the Premier League. Unfortunately for Pep Guardiola, that’s exactly what he’s got on Wednesday evening at the Etihad.

If City are not yet in crisis, then they are laying the foundations for one — and it could be big unless something is done soon. The team have managed just five clean sheets all season and they conceded seven goals in their last two top-flight matches, all of them preventable for a competent rearguard.

It’s now months ago that home fans could go to the Etihad and feel confident that their side would walk away with a victory. Despite a fixture list that has not been overly harsh on City through the autumn months, Guardiola’s team have not been able to pick up the necessary points on their own pitch.

That’s the biggest factor in why they trail Chelsea by seven points at the top of the table. Six weeks ago, the Stamford Bridge side were three points behind, as City’s start to the season had left them in a formidable position. They currently look a shadow of the team that won their first 10 matches in all competitions.

If Watford stay compact at the back, take their chances on the break and put City’s fragile defence under pressure, they will get something from the match on Wednesday night. The worrying thought for home supporters is that both Walter Mazzarri and Guardiola know this, but there seems to be very little the City manager can do to stop it as his side’s defensive issues begin to spiral out of control.

Despite heavy investment in recent years, City’s defence have never looked worse in owner Sheikh Mansour’s era. John Stones has made regular mistakes since his £47.5 million move from Everton, while Nicolas Otamendi has looked lost in his position for most of his season-and-a-half in Manchester.

The full-backs, while great attendants to City for their roles in previous solid teams, are now flagging badly, as years of ignoring growing problems have led to the club sleepwalking into the shambles that took place at Leicester’s King Power Stadium on Saturday. Quite how Guardiola can recover from that 4-2 embarrassment is a mystery, as his tactics and style seem to be highlighting the deficiencies rather than solving them.

It’s admirable that Guardiola wants the team to play in his manner and, for all the criticism to this respect, it wasn’t City’s possession style in defence that caused the problems against the reigning champions. More alarmingly, it was basic mistakes that saw them sliced open time and again — the defensive line was higgledy-piggledy, marking was too slack, closing down was nonexistent, and behind all of that was a goalkeeper who’s struggling to make the sort of saves fans would expect from a world-class No. 1.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Guardiola demanding a style that invites his team to soak up pressure and counter-attack through the lines as the opponent moves forward. But that just isn’t happening, and when City lose the ball, they’re not doing enough to win it back and stop it from entering their own net.

After 1-1 draws with Everton, Southampton and Middlesbrough and a 3-1 defeat to Chelsea in their last four Premier League home games, confidence is understandably difficult to find ahead of what will be a tough match against a team scrapping for points. Watford have nothing to lose. They’re not expected to get anything out of this match and will see a positive result as a bonus. That makes them dangerous, especially while City are still licking their wounds from the weekend.

Whether Guardiola can shore up the back line enough to be able to drag his side kicking and screaming back into the title race is another matter. December will be a crucial month in that regard, and just one victory in their last five outings demonstrates how inconsistently they’re playing right now.

Suspensions to Fernandinho and Sergio Aguero continue, which won’t help matters at either end of the pitch, though Otamendi does return from his ban. He may be below the standard that City need, but he can’t put in a worse display than anything that happened at Leicester, and his return allows Guardiola to go to a more orthodox back four.

The Catalan coach’s catchphrase this season has been that City have problems “in both boxes.” The defence have let in too many, his attack are failing to find the net enough, and only once in their last six home games have they scored more than a single goal. That can’t go on.

No team can realistically win the title this early in the campaign, but unless City buck their ideas up, they will be out of the race before Christmas. Something needs to change — and that makes the match with Watford a must-win.