Nigeria Must Create 27 Million Jobs by 2030 to Avert 30% Unemployment Spike – NESG

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has issued a strong warning that Nigeria must create at least 27 million new jobs by the year 2030 to avert a possible unemployment and underemployment rate surge to 30 percent. The group stated that with the population of working-age Nigerians projected to hit 168 million by the end of the decade, the economy needs to produce an average of 4.5 million formal jobs annually to sustain economic stability and prevent a labour market crisis.

This was contained in the NESG’s new report titled “From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria,” which was unveiled at its 31st annual summit in Abuja. The report highlights the country’s worsening employment situation, stressing that the majority of Nigerians are trapped in the informal sector with low wages, poor working conditions, and minimal job security. The group warned that without urgent policy and structural reforms, Nigeria’s youth bulge could become a major socio-economic threat.

According to the report, over 90 percent of Nigerians currently work in the informal sector, dominated by micro and small enterprises with low productivity levels. NESG argued that while informal employment provides livelihood opportunities, it cannot deliver the level of income and stability required to drive inclusive growth. The group identified the weak private sector, infrastructure gaps, poor access to finance, and an outdated education system as the biggest obstacles to job creation and productivity improvement in the country.

NESG further stated that four major sectors hold the highest potential for large-scale job creation. These include manufacturing (especially agro-processing and light industry), construction, information and communications technology (ICT), and professional services. Combined, these sectors could generate over 9.7 million of the 27 million jobs needed by 2030. Manufacturing alone could account for about 21 percent of the total, if supported by targeted industrial policies, reliable energy supply, and a competitive business environment.

The report emphasized the need for the government to create an enabling environment for private sector-led growth by tackling multiple taxation, simplifying business registration, improving power generation, and enhancing access to affordable credit. NESG also called for the modernization of Nigeria’s education and training systems to better align with the needs of industries. It recommended a strong focus on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), as well as technical and vocational education, to equip young Nigerians with employable skills.

Speaking on the findings, NESG Chairman, Mr. Niyi Yusuf, noted that Nigeria’s economic growth alone would not be sufficient to reduce unemployment unless it becomes more inclusive and labour-intensive. He urged the government to prioritize the creation of quality jobs through sectoral reforms and partnerships between public and private institutions. Yusuf stressed that achieving sustainable growth would require deliberate investment in job-rich sectors and stronger collaboration among federal, state, and local governments.

He explained that while the economy has shown signs of resilience, its structure remains heavily dependent on imports and oil revenues, which have limited job creation opportunities. He urged policymakers to accelerate economic diversification by promoting value addition in agriculture, manufacturing, and digital innovation. According to him, the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is critical to creating sustainable employment, as they remain the largest contributors to Nigeria’s job market.

NESG also recommended the establishment of a unified National Jobs and Productivity Agenda that would coordinate all employment-related initiatives across ministries, agencies, and development partners. The agenda, it said, should include a monitoring framework to track progress in job creation, productivity improvement, and skills development. The group also emphasized the need to upgrade labour market data systems to improve evidence-based decision-making and planning.

The report projected that for Nigeria to generate 27 million jobs within the next five years, the economy must grow at an average rate of between 7 and 10 percent annually, particularly in high-employment sectors. It also urged the government to reduce policy uncertainty, ensure transparency in the business environment, and strengthen governance institutions to attract domestic and foreign investment.

Furthermore, NESG warned that if Nigeria fails to address its structural challenges, the number of underemployed and unemployed youths could increase significantly, leading to social unrest and rising poverty levels. It called on both the government and private sector to work together to foster innovation, entrepreneurship, and industrialization to meet the growing demand for jobs.

The group also highlighted the role of technology in boosting employment opportunities, suggesting that digital platforms and remote work could open new pathways for Nigerian youth. It advised that policies should support tech-enabled sectors, creative industries, and renewable energy solutions, which have the potential to generate decent and sustainable employment.

In its conclusion, NESG reiterated that Nigeria’s biggest economic resource remains its people, and unlocking their potential through decent work and higher productivity is the only path to sustainable development. The report called for urgency and coordinated action from all stakeholders, including government agencies, private investors, development organizations, and civil society.

It added that job creation should not only be about quantity but also quality, ensuring that workers have access to fair wages, safe working environments, and opportunities for advancement. The group warned that without decisive action, the mismatch between population growth and job availability could deepen inequality and threaten the nation’s long-term stability.

 

Ultimately, NESG’s message is clear: Nigeria must move from survival-based hustles to productive, formal, and inclusive employment. By transforming its economic structure, investing in education and innovation, and empowering its workforce, the country can turn its demographic strength into an engine of growth rather than a source of crisis.