South Africa Surpasses Nigeria as Africa’s Leading Fuel Importer Amid Refinery Challenges

South Africa has overtaken Nigeria as the largest importer of refined petroleum products in Africa, marking a significant shift in the continent’s energy landscape. This change reflects contrasting developments in the two countries’ refining sectors, with Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery ramping up production while South Africa grapples with refinery shutdowns and increasing dependency on imports.

According to a recent report by energy consultancy CITAC, Nigeria imported approximately 3.1 million tonnes of refined petroleum products during the first quarter of 2025. In contrast, South Africa imported about 4.2 million tonnes in the same period, positioning it as Africa’s biggest fuel importer. The consultancy projects South Africa’s annual imports could reach 15.5 million tonnes in 2025, nearly two and a half times Nigeria’s expected 6.4 million tonnes for the year.

The dramatic reduction in Nigeria’s fuel imports is largely credited to the operational success of the Dangote Refinery, the largest single-train refinery in Africa. Commissioned in 2024, the refinery has a production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. By early 2025, it was producing around 550,000 barrels daily, satisfying roughly 60 percent of Nigeria’s domestic petrol demand. This milestone has significantly decreased Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined fuel, curbing the cost pressures associated with fuel imports and boosting the country’s energy self-sufficiency.

The Dangote Refinery’s emergence is a major development for Nigeria, which for years depended heavily on imported refined petroleum products despite being Africa’s largest crude oil producer. The country’s inability to meet domestic fuel demand through local refining had long been a source of economic strain, with billions spent annually on fuel imports. The new refinery’s capacity not only addresses this gap but also positions Nigeria as a potential exporter of refined products to neighboring countries, enhancing its regional influence.

In stark contrast, South Africa’s increasing fuel imports are driven by significant challenges in its domestic refining industry. The country’s refining sector, once robust and largely self-sufficient, has faced repeated setbacks in recent years. Key refineries, including Sapref and Engen’s Durban refinery, have been non-operational due to industrial accidents, equipment failures, and delays in necessary upgrades and maintenance. These issues have drastically reduced South Africa’s refining capacity, forcing the country to import more refined petroleum products to meet domestic consumption.

Currently, over half of South Africa’s refining capacity remains inactive, with imports accounting for more than 60 percent of the country’s fuel consumption. The increased dependency on imports raises concerns about energy security, cost volatility, and the balance of payments. Imported fuel is subject to global market fluctuations, which can impact fuel prices and inflation domestically. The situation underscores the urgent need for investments and reforms to revive and modernize South Africa’s refining infrastructure.

The divergent paths of Nigeria and South Africa highlight the critical role of refining capacity in shaping a country’s energy security and economic stability. Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery demonstrates how strategic investment in local refining can reduce import dependency, conserve foreign exchange, and create jobs. The refinery’s operation is expected to stimulate related sectors, including petrochemicals and logistics, contributing to broader economic growth.

For South Africa, the current import dependency signals vulnerabilities that could affect the country’s industrial output and economic competitiveness. Fuel shortages or price spikes resulting from import disruptions could have widespread consequences across transport, manufacturing, and other key sectors. Industry stakeholders and government officials have called for urgent action to rehabilitate existing refineries and consider new investments to secure a more sustainable supply of refined products.

Energy experts also point to the growing importance of transitioning to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. Both Nigeria and South Africa face pressure to reduce carbon emissions and align with global climate goals. In this context, investments in refinery upgrades also need to incorporate cleaner technologies and energy efficiency measures.

The shift in fuel import leadership also has broader regional implications. Nigeria’s reduced imports could reshape fuel trade patterns in West Africa, with surplus refined products potentially supplied to neighboring countries. Meanwhile, South Africa’s increased imports may influence supply dynamics in southern Africa, potentially affecting regional fuel prices and trade flows.

Governments across Africa are watching these developments closely as they seek to balance energy security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. The experience of Nigeria and South Africa underscores the complex challenges and opportunities in managing energy resources on the continent.

In conclusion, South Africa’s rise as Africa’s top fuel importer, overtaking Nigeria, reflects contrasting fortunes in their refining industries. Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is a game-changer, significantly cutting import dependence and boosting local production. Meanwhile, South Africa’s refinery shutdowns and underinvestment have forced greater reliance on imports, exposing vulnerabilities in its energy sector. Addressing these challenges will be crucial for both countries as they navigate the future of energy security, economic development, and sustainability in Africa.